Portugal’s real economic mountain
The debate about economic growth gains new clarity when we measure the “mountain” that Portugal would have to climb to converge, within a decade, with the most advanced economies. The IMF projection points to real GDP per capita growth of around 1.8% per year until 2030, a level that, extended until 2034, would allow it to surpass Japan, whose growth expectation is even lower (1.2%). But here ends the easy part.
To catch up with economies like Spain, the United Kingdom or France, Portugal would need to grow between 2.1% and 2.7% per year — demanding rates, but plausible in countries that reform, innovate and remove internal barriers to investment. When the target is more productive economies, such as Germany, Denmark or the Netherlands, the challenge becomes much steeper: average growth of 4.3%, 5.6% and 6.1% per year, respectively, would be required.
At the top of the mountain are the USA and Switzerland, whose convergence would require growth of close to 7% per year for 10 years — a level never observed in advanced economies in recent decades and largely unrealistic for Portugal. It is important to note that this analysis is not static: growth estimates from other countries were also considered, and many European economies face modest forecasts, which makes part of the convergence more achievable than it might seem.
The exercise reveals the structural dimension of the Portuguese challenge. The economic delay is not cyclical: it reflects decades of low productivity, insufficient investment and inefficient institutions. Recovering ground requires a persistent strategy of qualification, innovation, economic openness and regulatory stability.
In short, we don’t need heroic feats to catch up with Spain, France, the United Kingdom or Japan — just to grow stably and faster than we have been growing. But to reach the world’s top economies would require unprecedented acceleration. The message is simple: Portugal will only rise if it accelerates. And discussing prosperity without addressing its foundations is like climbing a mountain without the right equipment — you may start well, but you won’t reach the top.
- The facts seen through the magnifying glass by André Pinção Lucas e Juliano Ventura – A partnership between POSTAL and the Institute
Also read:
