The 2026 presidential election is heading towards a different format from previous disputes. For political scientist and economist Mauricio Moura, founder of IDEIA Big Data, the election was already structured as a referendum on the government, and not as a classic competition between political projects. The assessment was presented this Wednesday (26), at a UBS event with businesspeople and clients, in São Paulo.
According to Moura, the key to the dispute will be concentrated on a single question: does Lula deserve to continue? This type of framing, common in high-rejection elections, places the incumbent at the center of public judgment.
“In the current scenario, ‘does not deserve to continue’ appears two percentage points ahead of ‘deserves to continue’, technically tied, but with a slight advantage on the negative side”, stated the political scientist. This balance, according to him, already configures an election structurally favorable to the opposition.
Continues after advertising
The central problem for the president, Moura points out, is the inability to expand his base since 2022. Voters who voted for Jair Bolsonaro in the second round remain overwhelmingly opposed to the government.
“Lula was unable to add even one percentage point to this group,” he said. This creates a rigid ceiling: approval may fluctuate within the base itself, but there is little room for conversions in the anti-PT camp.
Still, the consultant recalled that presidents seeking re-election usually improve their image during the electoral cycle. “FHC, Lula, Dilma and Bolsonaro himself improved their approval ratings in the year they tried to renew their mandate,” he noted. For Moura, Lula could also gain some momentum throughout 2026, but faces less favorable circumstances than his predecessors.
The political scientist also highlighted an element that makes the scenario more difficult: the saturation of Lula’s figure in the national political imagination. Since 1989, he has participated in almost every presidential contest.
“If Lula goes to the second round in 2026, he will have participated in seven second rounds out of a possible ten. No other democratic leader has had this presence,” he said. For him, this means that Brazilians already have consolidated perceptions about the PT member, making last-minute changes difficult.
With a polarized environment and a president who awakens crystallized opinions, Moura projects an election defined within the margin of statistical error.
Continues after advertising
“This is a super close election. It should be decided by a micro-interaction with 3% of the electorate”, he stated. This group, made up of around 5 million people, is volatile, little ideological and highly sensitive to everyday economic factors, such as income, work and cost of living.
In practice, 2026 will not be a dispute between Lula and an opposition figure, but a vote on performance, political fatigue and future expectations — a kind of referendum on the PT member.
