Those imposed on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine, which began in February 2022, are of fundamental importance as a tool of diplomatic and economic pressure, although their effectiveness in changing the Kremlin’s behavior is the subject of debate. The definitive blow to its finances and interests, which forces its president, Vladimir Putin, to retreat or to agree on worse conditions for Moscow, is not dealt with. Thanks to his allies and partners, his accounts hold up. Thanks to Donald Trump, .
Now, U.S.-based nonprofit research organization that uses the fight against corruption to undermine authoritarian power, has identified loopholes through which the West can do more decisive damage to Russia to stop its aggression against Ukraine. A terrain still unexplored, almost four years after the beginning of their aggression. Specifically, according to the British newspaper its experts identify chemicals used in lubricants and tires of military vehicles as possible vulnerabilities of the regime.
He speaks of “obscure but potentially key sanctions” that “could seriously disrupt Russia’s war effort” on Ukrainian soil. Hasn’t it been done before? Yes, previous rounds of sanctions have actually been applied to energy companies, banks, military suppliers and ships transporting Russian oil, but this organization maintains that they can go further, especially with “chemical products used to manufacture mechanical lubricants and tires for military use.” An Achilles heel that could be attacked.
Kristofer Harrison, president of the group and former North American State Department expert on Russia, explains that the focus is usually on microchips or oil companies, but these avenues they propose “are difficult to replace and essential for Moscow to be able to deploy tanks and fight.” “A lubricant shortage would seriously damage Russia’s war machine,” he writes in his latest report, revealed by this media.
Only a few companies worldwide manufacture chemical additives for mechanical lubricants (engine oil for tanks and automobiles). “Almost all stopped selling these chemicals to Russia at the beginning of its large-scale invasion, causing widespread shortages and complaints from drivers,” it says.
Dekleptocracy found, for example, that a Chinese company, Xinxiang Richful, now meets much of Russian demand, supplying up to eight million kilos a year. Richful recently opened an office in Virginia. “Blocking it, as well as some smaller suppliers, would lead to a shortage of mechanical lubricants in Russia, the group says,” it says. China is, precisely, a country that, in terms of the invasion of Ukraine itself, but that, in view of the facts, continues to help Russia, as a loyal client and as a defensive and diplomatic partner.
DeKleptocracy has also found that Russia “has little domestic capacity to produce vulcanization accelerators and other substances needed to produce military-grade tires.”
You have to insist
The US Secretary of State, , stated at a G7 meeting just a few days ago that most of the major sanctions had been implemented. “Well, there’s not much left to sanction on our part; that is, we affect their main oil companies, which is what everyone has been asking for,” he said. But what these analysts in their own country say is that yes, there is more.
director of the finance and security center at the Royal United Services Institute, the UK’s leading defense think tank, told the Guardian that Dekleptocracy’s findings represent valuable work and proof that the objectives of the sanctions remain valid. “As long as Russia successfully obtains the components it needs for its military, and as long as Russia successfully sells its oil, the environment will remain target-rich,” he said.
“As long as Russia successfully obtains the components it needs for its military, and as long as Russia successfully sells its oil, the environment will remain rich in targets.”
Today, Russia has a strong oil industry but lacks domestic producers of many lesser-known but important chemicals, such as food additives and substances used to make tires, pharmaceuticals and shampoo. Moscow launched an initiative earlier this year to produce hundreds of chemicals domestically, further demonstrating the weakness of the sector, according to Dekeleptocracy.
“We looked at the Russian economy and some of the things that are necessary to keep their war machine running,” Harrison said. “We study their manufacturing base, their chemical base, to identify critical problems, the elements that the Russians cannot manufacture themselves,” he elaborates.
Rubio’s comments came after the US imposed in October in an effort to “degrade” Russia’s war machine. Keatinge understands that it was too early to decide whether sanctions against Rosneft and Lukoil had been effective, because little had been done to impose secondary sanctions against companies that continued to buy their oil.
“A successful sanctions regime depends not only on identifying new targets, but also on ensuring their implementation against those already identified,” he said. “Ukraine’s allies must continue to implement existing sanctions and take action against those who facilitate evasion,” he concludes.
