New York Times columnist Thomas Friedman suggested awarding a “Neville Chamberlain Peace Prize” to Trump for the plan his envoys negotiated with the Kremlin. I disagree: the rightly vilified British Prime Minister does not deserve the exaggerated dishonor. Chamberlain craved peace at any price; Trump just wants to define spheres of influence and make deals.
In the name of peace, Chamberlain betrayed his ally Czechoslovakia, handing over the Sudetenland region to Hitler at the famous Munich Conference of 1938. Trump’s plan represents a betrayal of the ally, which should recognize Russian sovereignty over territories occupied and not occupied by the invading forces, reduce its combative capabilities and officially renounce its candidacy for the (EU) and the .
First difference: amputated Czechoslovakia would retain its sovereignty; Ukraine would be converted into an informal protectorate of . Second difference: the “peace” of Munich was correctly presented as a German demand; the plan for Ukraine, falsely presented as a US proposition. Third difference: Czechoslovakia declared that it would not face Germany without the help of Allied troops; Ukraine has been fighting the Russian invasion for almost four years, at the cost of the deaths of almost half a million soldiers and more than 60 thousand civilians.
Churchill fulminated Chamberlain: “between war and dishonor, they chose dishonor — and they will have war.” At this point, the equivalence makes sense. The cession of the unoccupied area of Donetsk proposed by the US would imply the elimination of Ukraine’s main lines of defensive fortifications, providing Russia with an unimpeded offensive in the central Ukrainian region in a future resumption of the war.
The “Worse than Chamberlain” award has not yet been given to Trump, but only because his administration faces division. Witkoff, the president’s envoy, and Dan Driscoll, deputy foreman JD Vance, translated the complete list of Russian demands into English and printed them with the White House seal. Then, Secretary of State Marco Rubio entered the game and, under pressure from Ukraine and the Europeans, welcomed substantial changes to the proposal, removing the nature of capitulation.
Still somewhat unclear, the revised plan appears to include the tacit, but not formal, cession of occupied territories and the suspension of sanctions on Russia. However, it would not reduce Ukraine’s armed forces or veto, at some point in the future, its membership of the EU and NATO. Even amputated, the Ukrainian state would retain its sovereignty, along with the opportunity to pursue security and prosperity.
Putin will say no. It would only admit a sovereign Ukraine in the face of relevant military failures, something that would require an increase in military aid to the invaded nation. The head of the Kremlin trusts Trump. He believes, with excellent reasons, that the USA will obtain for Russia, through blackmail, the triumph that its armed forces prove incapable of achieving on the battlefield.
By gradually pressuring Ukraine into renewed concessions, Trump does Putin’s dirty work. The Ukrainian government could sign the revised plan in a treaty ending the war, but the White House forces it to accept it as a starting point for hypothetical negotiations with Russia. Compared to Trump, Chamberlain was an honorable statesman.
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