Political scientist Graziella Testa, professor at UFRP (Federal University of Paraná), stated that popular support for former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), arrested for attempted coup d’état and other crimesmay not be enough to sustain its political strength in the long term.
During participation in the program ‘WW Special’, from CNNshe highlighted that . According to her, the next election could thus further consolidate the power of those who already have the necessary structure to spread support across the country.
“It’s easy to think that a movement is very organic and that a person has massive support, but this does not automatically translate into consistent votes. The key is in party capillarity, which is very difficult to build in Brazil”, explained Testa.
Capillarity refers to the presence of a structured political organization in various regions of the country, with local leaders who are able to mobilize voters efficiently. According to the political scientist, while Bolsonaro has built a significant base in Brazil, the lack of a solid party network distributed throughout the country still limits his ability to maintain and expand this support.
“Jair Bolsonaro has a party, but the PL still faces difficulties in becoming a nationally effective electoral machine. The real capillarity in Brazil is in the Centrãowhich has a consolidated structure and is much more distributed across the country”, highlighted the political scientist.
Testa highlighted that, after the 2017 political reforms, the Centrão has further strengthened its presence, which could make it the dominant force in the . For her, with the leadership vacuum left by Bolsonaro, Centrão appears as the main organized force to fill this space and compete for influence on the Brazilian right.
“The Centrão is centralized around a few leaders, and this phenomenon will have a direct impact on electoral disputes. With Bolsonaro’s arrest, these leaders may gain more relevance”, he concluded.
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