It is no secret that the European Union (EU) is in low hours and that member countries act more like enemies than partners. One of them, the most wayward, is the Hungary of Viktor Orbánthe prime minister who has been in power for 15 years after winning four consecutive elections easily. Orbán strengthens ties with the Russia of Vladimir Putinthe greatest military threat to Europe, according to Brussels; with Donald Trumpthe king of tariffs; and merges with the main leaders of the European extreme right. But Orbán’s continuity at the head of the country is in danger. A former ally of the prime minister is leading the polls for next April’s general elections. This is Péter Magyar, a young 44-year-old lawyer, MEP and leader of the Respect and Freedom Party (Tisza).
Orbán reached the pinnacle of politics at just 35 years old, when he assumed the position of prime minister in the late 1990s at the head of the right-wing Hungarian Civic Union (Fidesz) party. After losing the elections in 2002 against the socialists and spending nearly a decade in the opposition, he regained power in 2010. Since then, Orbán has radicalized his speech. The big shift occurred in 2014 in response to the , the ultranationalist and xenophobic party that became the third parliamentary force, the second in popularity and the main threat to Orbán.
The Hungarian leader read the new political scenario very well. The advance of the ultras had to be stopped by appropriating their speecha strategy later adopted by European right-wing parties. The refugee crisis of 2015 suited him like a glove. He erected fences on the border and led the revolt of EU countries that refused to abide by Brussels’ quota plan. For Orbán, welcoming refugees or non-EU immigrants is not the responsibility of Hungary, but of the countries that colonized those territories, plundering their wealth.
electoral autocracy
Orbán’s strength and consolidation was evident in the last elections, those of 2022, in which the candidate of an unprecedented coalition formed by socialists, the greens and Jobbik. Orbán took 54% of the votes compared to 35% for his main rival. Participation was more than 69%.
During his long ‘reign’, Orbán has transformed Hungarian liberal democracy into a electoral autocracywhere the prime minister dominates the three branches of government. He Supreme and Constitutional Court They are in the hands of judges they trust. It also controls 80% of the media sector of the country. Hungary ranks 68th out of 180 in the press freedom index, according to Reporters Without Borders, which describes the Hungarian leader as “predator of press freedom”. Ultranationalism, xenophobiadefense of more conservative Christian values and rejection towards him LGTBI+ movementare part of Orbán’s ideology.
The opposition is confident that Magyar will manage to unseat him. In his political acts, the opposition leader, whom the government press describes as an “insect” and a “traitor”, denounces the bad economic situation of the country, the deterioration of health and public educationas well as the lack of social policies. A general deterioration that affects the urban popular classes, the rural population and Hungarians with a lower educational level, Orbán’s main electoral base.
Corruption
Magyar also emphasizes the high level of corruption. “The Hungarian state has become not the guardian, but the looter of public wealth,” denounces the opposition. A boyhood friend de Orbán, a former plumber, is today the richest man in Hungary. Something similar happens with your son-in-lawa former supplier of streetlights to municipalities, which has become a true magnate.
Despite the polls, Magyar is not going to have it easy. Orbán has already put in place the entire State apparatus and the related private sector at the service of his campaign, criticizing those who “only hope to implement orders from Brussels” and the current EU Migration and Asylum Pact. “We are not going to apply it,” he said. To all this we must add the alliance that Orbán maintains with Putin. Hungarian leader opposes sanctions on Russia and to supply weapons to Ukraine. His excellent relations with Trump They have allowed Hungary to skip the sanctions and continue buying gas and oil from Russia, in exchange, yes, for million-dollar investments and purchases of weapons from the United States.
Brussels has frozen funds to Budapest for more than 20 billion euros due to the erosion of the rule of law. Magyar is committed to restoring good relations with the EU and including Hungary in the eurozone. “We will rebuild this country brick by brick. This system cannot be reformed, only replaced and that is what we will do. We will end this regime,” said the leader of Tisza. Brussels wants this to be the case. Orbán’s defeat would mean a setback for the European extreme right.
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