For years, drought was an image associated with other continents. Now, gravity maps that “weigh” subsoil water show an accelerating smear over southern and central Europe. In two decades of measurements, scientists see aquifers falling from Spain to Romania and warn that what is missing under our feet can quickly become a problem on the surface: in taps, in fields and on supermarket shelves
Vast freshwater reserves in Europe are shrinking, especially in the south and center of the continent, with announced effects on agriculture, ecosystems and urban water supplies.
The conclusion results from an analysis of satellite data between 2002 and 2024, conducted by researchers from University College London (UCL) in collaboration with the organization Watershed Investigations and the British newspaper The Guardianwhich draws a contrasting map: northern and northwestern Europe, including parts of the United Kingdom and Portugal, appear wetter, while large areas of the south and southeast, from the Iberian Peninsula to Romania and Ukraine, appear increasingly drier.
To arrive at these trends, the team used satellites that measure variations in the Earth’s gravitational field and allow us to “weigh” how much water is stored in aquifers, rivers, lakes, soils and glaciers, as the mass of water changes the signal.
When they crossed these records with climate databases, the curves matched up correctly. “Climate breakdown” is written there, underground, summarizes Mohammad Shamsudduha, professor of water crisis and risk reduction at UCL, . Shamsudduha recalls that limiting global warming to 1.5 °C is no longer realistically discussed and that the world is heading towards 2 °C more compared to the pre-industrial era, “with already visible consequences”.
A specific analysis of groundwater showed a design very similar to that of total water on land, which confirms that even the reserves considered most resilient are being depleted. In the United Kingdom, this academic notes, the signal is increasingly clear: the West becomes wetter, the East drier, with stable or slightly increasing total rainfall, but concentrated in intense showers and summers with long periods without precipitation, which favors sudden floods and less recharge of aquifers.
Water resilience strategy
On the human pressure side, data from the European Environment Agency indicate that, between 2000 and 2022, the total volume of water abstracted from surface and underground sources in the European Union fell, but groundwater withdrawals rose by 6%, driven by public supply and agriculture. In 2022, aquifers would guarantee 62% of the water that reaches taps and a third of agricultural demand in Member States.
Brussels responds with a “water resilience strategy” that aims to adapt management to the new climate, build a “smart water economy” and improve efficiency by at least 10% by 2030, with priority given to reducing losses in a network where leaks vary between 8% and 57%.
It is in this context that voices like that of hydrologist Hannah Cloke, from the University of Reading, also cited by the newspaper The Guardian, describe it as “distressing” to see the loss of groundwater statistically confirmed in a country, England, which has been experiencing major droughts and warnings of below-average rainfall.
The European Environment Agency has already asked England to prepare for the possibility of the drought lasting until 2026, and the British Government announces nine new reservoirs to reinforce resilience, but Cloke counters that infrastructures that will only be ready within decades will not solve the immediate problem and defends more reuse, less consumption, a clear separation between drinking water and recycled water and nature-based solutions for designing cities and new urbanizations.
“Climate change is real, it is happening and it is affecting us”
Researchers warn that the drying pattern observed in many European regions will have “far-reaching” impacts on food security, agricultural activity and water-dependent ecosystems, especially aquifer-fed habitats.
The reduction of reserves in Spain, Mohammad Shamsudduha exemplifies, can be directly felt in the United Kingdom that depends heavily on fruit and vegetables imported from that country and other European partners. And remember that what you now see on the European map is a close version of phenomena long described in the global South, from South Asia to parts of Africa and the Middle East.
Prolonged droughts and falling aquifers now also extend across the Middle East, Asia, South America, the west coast of the USA, Canada and cold regions such as Greenland, Iceland and Svalbard. In Iran, Tehran is approaching “day zero” when it will no longer have piped water, the Government is preparing rationing measures and the President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has already admitted that the capital may have to be evacuated if these measures fail.
Given this situation, Shamsudduha insists on the same idea: we need to accept “that climate change is real, it is happening and it is affecting us” and use this as a starting point for another way of managing water, making room for solutions that still sound unconventional, such as the widespread capture of rainwater in countries like the United Kingdom.
