Is it over for good? The pathetic episode of the mutilated ankle bracelet seems to have precipitated the demise of the leadership of the “myth” — as his followers were eager to call him —, recently sentenced to prison for attempted murder.
Framed by democratic institutions, the former captain has now exposed himself to ridicule. It doesn’t matter if the cause was a psychotic break; or outright political stupidity, as João Pereira Coutinho suggests in his article published this week; or even due to an irremediable lack of dignity and composure.
It is possible that the minority formed by the core Bolsonarists will continue to deny the facts. But it is difficult to imagine that, after all, your idol maintains his position as the center of political gravity of right-wing forces at the national level. This place is vacant and filling it is a challenge — by no means trivial — for the right-wing forces.
The victory of , in 2018, destroyed the way in which the camp antagonistic to the PT organized itself for electoral purposes, starting in 1994, and with what agenda it entered the dispute for the federal Executive.
On the one hand, the PSDB offered a centrist presidential candidate, vertebrating the coalition of parties of various right-wing tones, which, by the way, lined up on different state platforms. At the level of the states, the ambitions of the related parties were accommodated, when the candidates for the subnational Executive were defined; to the ; to and to the Legislative Assemblies. The presidential election in two rounds funneled the competition for power, reducing the real chances of third ways.
On the other hand, the Tucano monopoly on the candidacy for the Palácio do Planalto gave programmatic coherence —social-liberal— to the national dispute, in addition to the conservatism of the parties that formed the anti-PT coalition.
The arrival of an extreme populist meant the end of this arrangement in which the center organized the right-wing camp in the competition for the Presidency and gave it a moderately liberal and reformist appearance. Under Bolsonaro’s auspices, radical rightists showed themselves without disguise; they appropriated parties; they brought reactionary values to the political agenda; the challenge to the rights to diversity of behavior and lifestyles; disregard for environmental issues. They completely changed the space on the right, even if the pragmatists from the center remain there in the majority.
This is the state the anti-PT forces find themselves in when Bolsonaro stops being a functional compass to guide them. It will be difficult to return, in the short term, to the times when the center led the right. The candidates to replace the coup leader are very far from moderation. Starting with the presidential governors, some of whom were elected in 2022, in the shadow of the popularity of their guide and master.
It is worth remembering that, if our democratic institutions are robust enough to accommodate authoritarian populism, this does not stop being a latent demand of a large portion of the electorate and, consequently, a recurring temptation for politicians.
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