With the onset of winter, the question naturally arises as to what kind of snow conditions await us this year and next. With reference to the portal, it is stated that the current forecast models indicate snowfall in Slovakia and in the wider European area.
It is currently taking place in the atmosphere above our territory an unusually early phenomenon called Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW). This is a situation where there is a rapid increase in temperature and pressure in the region of the stratospheric polar vortex. In the last 70 years, similarly early stratospheric warming has occurred only three times (1958, 1968, 2000), when these warmings appeared already in November.
When the polar vortex is disrupted or weakened, its ability to maintain cold air near the North Pole is greatly reduced. As a result, Arctic air can easily penetrate into areas of Europe or the United States, which has a significant impact on the weather in these regions.
Such a state of the polar vortex creates suitable conditions for a proper winter with snow and frost in Slovakia. Its weakening is not the only condition for cold and snowy weather. The resulting winter conditions are influenced by several factors, the polar vortex is only one of them.
How much snow cover can we expect?
Seasonal averages from the ECMWF (European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) model suggest that we can expect below-average snow across much of Europe as areas of heavier snowfall move further north. For Slovakia, this means that the total amount of snow could be lower than the long-term average during the winter months.
Forecasts for December indicate mostly below-average snow, except in the northernmost areas. The January forecast does not bring a significant change – it is expected that most of Europe will have less snow than usual in mid-winter. On the contrary, an increased amount of snow is expected in some areas in the southeast of the continent, as well as in the northernmost regions.
At the beginning of the year, the situation does not change much. Most of Europe should experience below-average snowfall in mid-winterwhile more snow is expected in some southeastern regions and the extreme north of the continent. Forecasts for February show a slightly reduced snow deficit compared to January. Although the maps indicate that both months will have less snow than usual, this does not mean a complete absence of snow. Snowfall is expected to be lower than the long-term average.
The snow forecast for March, i.e. for early spring, admits the possibility of an increased amount of snow in some areas of southern and central Europe. Current models indicate that the most snow could not fall on Slovakia until March, while it should be taken into account that these long-term forecasts can still be adjusted.
