The recent conviction and imprisonment for planning and attempting to overthrow the Brazilian democratic regime should reinvigorate our hopes for the resilience of democracy.
Still, this type of judicial and institutional evidence needs to be interpreted with caution, as research shows that voters when other values weigh more heavily.
Opinion polls reinforce this impression. A Datafolha survey carried out at the request of the OAB shows that any form of government, suggesting a normative consensus around democracy.
A study by INCT ReDem, from the Federal University of Paraná, published in May, points out that, despite the immense support for democracy, only 38% of Brazilians said they were satisfied or very satisfied with its functioning.
There is, therefore, a dissociation between abstract support for the regime and concrete assessment of its performance.
Yale professor Milan Svolik and co-authors, in an article published in the Journal of Democracy, carried out experiments in seven European countries to test citizens’ willingness to punish politicians who undermine democracy.
They found that right-wing voters and voters are not interested in politics when they have other political priorities, such as issues linked to immigration or the preservation of the traditional family.
Part of the Brazilian political elite, and its allies, seems to have identified a similar position among Brazilian voters.
Only then, for example, can we understand why the governor of São Paulo so emphatically defends the granting of amnesty to the former president.
Tarcísio seems to believe that this position will not result in a loss of votes in 2026, as he assesses that his electorate attributes values to the current government that harm their interests more than the restriction of civil liberties that would result from a democratic breakdown.
Similar rationality guides sectors of the political elite opposed to the government, although not necessarily Bolsonaro supporters.
For this group, defending values that speak to their voters can mitigate criticism of other actions, including physiological practices and self-interest, as evidenced in the expressive .
The question that remains is what will be the capacity of Brazilian democracy to remain resilient to attacks in the medium and long term.
Declared support for democracy does not prevent, in the face of conflicts of values or interests, citizens and political leaders from sanctioning anti-democratic behavior, which represents a real risk for the future of democracy.
Institutional resilience depends not only on judicial decisions and formal rules, but also on the willingness of voters and elites to prioritize democratic integrity.
And, given this situation, the inevitable question is: will we be prepared to defend democracy when the next test arrives?
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