More than six million Hondurans They decide this Sunday through a vote who will govern them starting in January. “Continuity” and “change” have been the dominant words of an electoral campaign marked in turn by crossed accusations and attempts at violence. In the South American country there is no second round. It is earned by simple majority and at night it will be known if Rixi Moncada, official candidate, former minister of Xiomara Castrowill deepen the path outlined by the current president, or, in tune with the political shakeups in the region and the new role that gives her Donald Trump to what happens south of the Rio Grande, the right, hand in hand with the construction businessman, Nasry ‘Tito’ Asfurajoins the wave that has started in Bolivia and seems to continue Chile with the Pinochetista José Antonio Kast. Sports commentator Salvador Nasralla He is the third in contention.
The latest CID Gallup poll placed Moncada and Nasralla in a situation of technical tie with 27% of voting intention, followed three points by Asfura. The consultancy’s credibility was damaged in the race four years ago, when it projected the triumph of the controversial ‘Tito’, and Castro finally defeated the former mayor of Tegucigalpa.
Trump’s role
The dispute is no longer between lawyer Moncada, Asfura and Nasralla, the journalist who drives Elon Musk’s Cybertruck. The internal situation has been subsumed by a higher crossroads: Hondurans must decide at the polls whether or not they are with Trump. The Republican magnate has had a decisive intervention in the last stretch of the campaign. In an outrageous tone, he called on voters to support Asfura “the only true friend of freedom in Honduras”. It matters little that the businessman has been an ally of former president Juan Orlando Hernández, sentenced in the United States to 45 years in prison for his long relationship with drug trafficking. Trump considered that the victory of ‘Tito’, who also calls himself “Papi”, will allow Honduras “work together to fight against narco-communists”. One of them is Moncada, according to Trump. “Will Hondurans allow more narcoterrorists, like Maduro, to“Take their countries as happened in Venezuela and Cuba?”
According to the president, “smart people” would choose Asfura“but the communists try to deceive the people by presenting a third candidate, Salvador Nasralla”, who, Trump maintained, is “almost communist”which forced the candidate to provide reliable evidence of his status as a liberal concerned about the issue of security and married to a wife who did not stop wearing a MAGA movement cap. “All my respect to a great nation that is the United States.natural ally of my beloved Honduras. “I am very sorry for the malicious misinformation of my political rivals that, knowing they are losers, they have brought to the ears of President Trump’s advisors, a person who deserves all my respect and greatest consideration,” he said, but he does not seem to have convinced the Republican billionaire.
Lights and shadows
The main leaders of Libre, Castro and Moncada’s party, trust that Trump’s interference will become a boomerang for the right and facilitate the triumph of a progressive agenda. Honduras will close 2025 with GDP growth close to four pointsan annual inflation of 4.85% and a reduction in murders of 14%, according to police figures. Citizens feel, however, very insecure. The economy of that country is largely fueled by remittances from immigrants.: during the first 10 months of this year it exceeded 10 billion dollars. The population lives in precarious situations with more than one job. The external debt exceeds 18 billion dollars. When Castro took office, poverty plagued 73.6% of the people. It has been reduced to 60.1%, a still exorbitant number.
The ghost of fraud
Hondurans will elect 298 municipal mayors, 128 deputies to the National Congress and 20 representatives to the Central American Parliament. The weeks before the elections have been marked by opposition complaints from a alleged attempted fraud of the Government to favor Moncada. These accusations, which the authorities rejected, have done nothing more than reactivate an old culture of suspicion that had one of its darkest points in the 2017 elections when, On the day of the vote, the power went out and once the power was restored, the count favored Juan Orlando Hernández. At least 23 people died during the protests.
Riding on Trump’s statements, his Undersecretary of State, Christopher Landauasked the Organization of American States (OAS) to ensure that this Sunday’s day passed “free from intimidation, fraud and political interference.” The EU Electoral Observation Mission It has deployed its observers throughout the territory. The winner of the elections must take office on January 27, 2026. But before that, a lot of water can flow under the bridge.
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