A SPE (Secretariat of Economic Policy) announced, this Monday (1st), that the Brazil’s potential GDP (Gross Domestic Product) was 2.6% em 2024. This metric is the estimate of how much the country can grow without creating inflationary pressure. THE product gap for last year remained at 0.4%, which is the difference between measured real GDP and potential GDP.
as natural factors, measured by electricity generation capacity and arable land.
“These natural factors allow capturing potential gains associated with the availability and quality of environmental resources, relevant for economies dependent on natural wealth such as Brazil”, says the report.
The main factors that boosted the potential GDP of 2024 were human capital and harvested area. In the case of the gap, the main cause is the employment of labor above the estimated potential.
This lower opening, together with the estimated recent reduction in the equilibrium unemployment rate observed in the estimates, together helps to explain the lower inflation of underlying services compared to that which would be predicted with the current unemployment situation, close to the historical minimum”, explains the Treasury in the document.
According to the SPE report, in the future, the secretariat intends to incorporate the hydrocarbon and biofuel production factor in the calculation of potential GDP. In addition, the Treasury also hopes to make forecasts of estimated potential GDP. There is no date for this to happen, however.
