Before Donald Trump returned to the White House, he said he could end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of his inauguration. Ten months later, Trump hasn’t kept his promise, but he hasn’t given up on it either. After the Republican’s reversals and changes in positions, Trump appears to have managed to engage the Russians, Ukrainians and the European Union (EU) around the negotiating table to seek an agreement.
The road is still long and talks are expected to drag on over the next few months, but the American president believes he will be able to end the longest conflict on the European continent since World War II.
Unlike former President Joe Biden, who never sought dialogue with the Russians, Trump did not hide his affinity with Russian President Vladimir Putin, even under a barrage of criticism. He rolled out the red carpet and called Putin to Anchorage, Alaska, in a pompous event seen around the world in August.
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The meeting ended without an agreement, as did eight telephone conversations between the two leaders and five visits by special envoy Steve Witkoff to Moscow. But after brokering the truce between Israel and the terrorist group Hamas, the Republican decided to try to end the war in Ukraine once again.
He allowed Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner to formulate a new 28-point plan after meetings with Kirill Dmitriev, a Putin envoy, in Miami in late October and Rustem Umerov, Ukrainian President Volodmir Zelensky’s top national security adviser.
Although American advisors met with emissaries from Kiev, the plan formulated by them was considered a “total capitulation” for the Ukrainians and meets Putin’s main demands. “Trump is putting pressure on Ukraine to achieve peace and this may work, but it will lead to later problems”, points out Angelo Segrillo, professor of Contemporary History at USP and specialist in Russia. “He is trying to use his negotiation tactics of offering a plan with maximalist positions and then reducing the demands and arriving at something more acceptable.”
Negotiations
The more Kremlin-aligned plan would give guarantees to Moscow that Kiev would not join NATO, as well as a promise that the military alliance would not expand closer to the Russian border. The peace formula would also limit the size of the Ukrainian military and require the cession of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Moscow does not fully control.
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The formula was criticized by European allies and Ukraine and even Putin did not agree with it 100%, signaling that the plan could be a “base” for the agreement, but without definitions, mainly due to the possibility of using frozen Russian funds to rebuild Ukraine – the only demand favorable to Kiev in the plan.
For Charles Kupchan, an analyst at the Council on Foreign Relations and professor of international relations at Georgetown University, Trump deserves credit for his effort to engage all parties to negotiate an end to the conflict, but his methods were problematic. “Trump is right to demand negotiations, because Ukraine cannot win this war, but the way this process was conducted was terrible.”
In addition to the Ukrainian opposition, the 28-point plan would be very bad for the European Union, which wants to participate in the negotiations and cannot be seen as weak before Washington and Moscow. “Europe is concerned about remaining relevant in the world and does not want to capitulate to Trump again, as it did with the trade agreement”, assesses Vinicius Rodrigues Vieira, professor of international relations at FGV-SP.
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After contacts with Trump’s team, officials from the European bloc met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Geneva and managed to move the pendulum of the peace formula towards conditions more favorable to Kiev and Brussels.
The proposal was shortened from 28 to 19 points and pleased the Ukrainians. Trump’s demand that Ukraine sign a deal by the end of November was also set aside, but key points such as Russian territorial demands, a constitutional change that rules out the possibility of Ukrainian NATO membership and the exact nature of the US security guarantee still need to be discussed.
The only certainty is that Russia would not accept the version of the plan modified by the Europeans and Ukrainians and new negotiations must take place. Trump administration special envoy Steve Witkoff will meet with Putin in Moscow on Monday, 1st, and US Army Secretary Daniel Driscoll would meet with the Ukrainians for consultations on the new plan.
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“It is very difficult to find a peace that is satisfactory for both sides”, says Segrillo. “One possible path is an agreement similar to the truce between South Korea and North Korea. It is difficult to have a lasting peace unless Trump forces Kiev to accept a completely unfavorable agreement.”
Despite saying he is open to negotiating with Trump, Putin is also prepared to continue the war. Even with high losses on the battlefield and economic difficulties due to sanctions, the Russian leader believes he can continue to gain ground with the aim of forcing Kiev to accept more demands before reaching an agreement.
Ukrainian analysts who spoke to the British magazine The Economist point out that Putin will not be ready to negotiate until the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, in February. On that date, the Russian leader will have to decide whether to launch a broader round of recruitment and the Russian economy should begin to feel more of the drop in oil revenues and the effect of sanctions.
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During a visit to Kyrgyzstan, the Russian president said Moscow would only halt its offensive if Ukrainian forces withdrew from unspecified areas under Kiev’s control. “If Ukrainian troops leave the territories they occupy, then we will stop fighting,” he said. “If not, we will achieve our objectives militarily.”
For the Russian president, it is necessary to fully annex the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to sell an image of victory to his domestic public. “Putin always wants to emerge victorious and is being pressured internally to only stop the war when he achieves the total annexation of these territories”, assesses Vieira, from FGV-SP.
Putin also wants Kiev to be part of the Russian sphere of influence and must be completely opposed to Ukraine joining NATO. “Putin sees Russia as a great power. In the same way that the USA does not want Mexico in a hostile military alliance, Moscow also wants to have its backyard and preserve its influence there”, points out Segrillo.
Political and military moment exposes Kiev
Ukraine’s political and military situation allows Putin not to moderate his demands. Kiev is losing territory at a rapid pace and is short on money and soldiers. In addition, several of Zelensky’s allies are facing corruption accusations, including his right-hand man Andrii Yermak, who resigned as the president’s chief of staff on Friday, 28, after anti-corruption units searched his home.
Amid weak military performance, Ukraine is unlikely to be able to regain territory to negotiate a better position with Moscow. Zelenski’s intention was to freeze the current lines on the battlefield in a possible peace agreement, without having to withdraw from territories.
Before leaving office, Yermak stated in an interview with the American magazine The Atlantic that the Ukrainian president would not sign an agreement in which Kiev would have to give up territories.
“I believe that the only scenario in which Ukraine accepts a peace agreement on Russia’s terms is a possible change of government”, highlights Vieira. “Only a possible successor to Zelensky could have a policy of appeasement with the Russians.”
Kupchan, from the Council on Foreign Relations, says that a negotiated solution could include Kiev’s withdrawal from territories that Moscow wants to control in the Donbass region in exchange for permission to join NATO.
“Ukraine could make this agreement if it had guarantees that it could be a completely sovereign, independent country and capable of making its own decisions about the future”, points out the Georgetown professor.
Questions about the agreement
Despite Trump’s efforts, significant issues continue to separate the Russian and Ukrainian demands and the Trump team itself has different views on how to proceed. On one side are Witkoff and American Vice President JD Vance, who want to reach an agreement that favors Russia more and prioritizes American commercial interests, and on the other is Secretary of State Marcio Rubio, who has a more professional view of diplomacy.
The topic became more sensitive after Bloomberg published on Tuesday, the 25th, recordings showing telephone conversations between Witkoff and Yuri Ushakov, the Kremlin’s foreign policy advisor. In the talks, the American special envoy appears to have instructed Ushakov on how Putin should approach Trump during the talks.
Despite criticism from the American Congress, the US president classified the episode as “normal”. “There is a wing of the Trump administration that is very focused on ending the war so that Trump can turn to domestic issues and JD Vance is the leader of that coalition,” points out Kupchan, from the Council on Foreign Relations. “The other wing is led by Rubio, who is more traditional and internationalist. Trump likes this mix of different ideas, but, at the end of the day, he rules them all and if anyone questions him he will be fired.”
