Ao’s nomination opened a high-cost institutional conflict and placed the government facing a risk that no president has faced since the beginning of the Republic: seeing his nominee being blocked by the Senate.
What should have been a formality became between Planalto and (União Brasil-AP), which took the lead of the opposing camp and started to signal that it had enough votes to defeat the name chosen by Lula.
In an analysis by Palver with data from more than 100,000 public WhatsApp groups over the last few weeks, it is observed that the narrative contrary to the indication largely predominates.
The opposition acts practically alone in a continuous campaign of attack, while favorable messages remain timid and dispersed, without the expected mobilization of the Lulist base.
Throughout almost the entire month of November, more than 50% of mentions were critical of Messiah, peaking at 91% at one point. Support for the nominee rarely exceeded 10% of daily messages, reaching a maximum of 20%.
The lack of engagement from the PT base can be attributed to two main factors: the absence of prominent left-wing figures publicly defending the name of Messiah and the frustration of the more progressive wing, which spent the year articulating to the Supreme Court.
This vacuum allowed three lines of attack to consolidate within the groups.
The first explores the role played by Messias in the developments of January 8th, with videos that show him expressing support for and defending the arrest in the act of those involved in the invasion.
The second takes up the “Bessias” episode, associated with that between Lula and Dilma in Operation Lava Jato, and tries to link it to corruption schemes.
The third questions his opinion, classifying him as a “false evangelical”.
Part of the criticism of religious identity can be seen in videos widely circulated in groups. In one of the videos, the deputy (PL-RJ) states that he knows Messias and recognizes that he is an evangelical, but insists that, “before being an evangelical, he is a PT member.”
The central criticism of Messias’ performance as attorney general of the Union would speak louder than his religious identity, especially in the episode of the opinion on the ADPF that discusses the termination of pregnancy after 22 weeks.
For Sóstenes, a “true evangelical” could not have signed a document interpreted by the group as permissive of abortion.
Criticism of Messias is accompanied by a return of attacks on the STF and mentions of what once again places the Supreme Court at the center of the political debate.
The news of his separation from his wife is presented as an attempt by the minister to circumvent the Magnitsky law.
Mentions are also growing as a narrative element that also seeks to associate Gilmar Mendes and Minister Alexandre de Moraes with the person arrested in Operation Compliance Zero.
Given the open tension with Davi Alcolumbre and the lack of engagement from the base itself, the government arrives at the Messias hearing at one of the most delicate moments of the year.
In recent months, Planalto has accumulated important victories, such as the defeat of the shielding PEC and the advance of , achievements that had strong narrative support and won in the public debate.
Messias’ nomination, however, finds itself in a desert of support, without the political mobilization that sustained other recent victories.
In addition to eroding the Planalto, the dispute revives attacks on the STF and exposes the Court to an environment of growing hostility, inaugurating a chapter in which the government runs the real risk of losing an institutional battle of historical importance.
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