Obsessed, persistent and, for now, victorious: Marco Rubio takes the reins of Trump’s strategy in Venezuela

Nobody can say today what they are going to do about Venezuela the president of the United States, Donald Trump. On Thursday he said that “very soon” he will extend the campaign against the drug trafficking and the alleged narcolanchas which began on September 2 in the Caribbean, in which it has committed more than 80 extrajudicial executions. The day before, aboard Air Force One, he had left the door open to dialogue with Nicolas Maduroalthough along with the possibility of doing things “the good way” (and it has been known that he spoke by phone with the Venezuelan leader) he kept the card of doing them “the bad way.”

The uncertainty pulsates with tension, because it has carried out in the region a military deployment that has not been seen since the missile crisis of 1962. But there is no doubt that, when something happens, and whatever it is, it will have played a fundamental role in Trump’s decision. Marco Rubiothe secretary of state and national security advisor, a powerful double position like the one he once held Henry Kissinger.

Evolution

At 54 years old, Rubio has managed to raise his profile, strengthen his relationship with Trump and become the main architect of his strategy for Venezuela. There is no trace left in this White House of “little Marco”, the insult with which Trump despised this son of Miami and emigrants who left Cuba three years before the triumph of the revolution led by Fidel Castro.

Already in the Republican’s first term, and after beginning during Barack Obama’s government to promote sanctions against senior Venezuelan officials for human rights violations and drug trafficking, Rubio was seen by some as “shadow secretary for Latin America.” In those years he and Mauricio Claver-Caronewho was then responsible for the Western Hemisphere in the White House, opted for a economic pressure campaign maxim against Caracas and for steps such as Trump recognizing Juan Guaidó as interim president.

All that took a toll, but it did not drown Rubio politically. And now he’s not just staying afloat, he’s at the helm.

Confrontation, not dialogue; national security, not foreign policy

Once Trump returned to the White House in January, it seemed that Richard Grenellhis special envoy for Venezuela and defender of dialogue to open avenues for negotiation with the country and, of course, business, was going to direct his strategy. But the Republican has ended up clipping Grenell’s wings and leaning towards Rubio, the greatest exponent of a maximalist effort, of confrontation and working towards regime changea personal obsession for him.

Rubio has made Trump’s aggressive relationship with Venezuela, at least on paper, presented as a fight against drug trafficking, understood as an extension of the war on terror.

The accusation of Maduro, charged in 2020 with charges of narcoterrorism and conspiracy to export cocaine to the United States and a reward for his capture that has risen from 15 million to 25 million in the years of Joe Biden and now, again with Trump, at 50. And the Secretary of the Treasury has managed to designate the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, an amorphous entity that he says is directed by Maduro.

As Carrie Filipetti, who was in charge of Venezuela in the State Department during Trump’s first presidency and with whom Rubio consults, as well as with Elliot Abrams, the Republican’s first envoy for Venezuela, has explained, “it is not being treated as a foreign policy issue but as a matter of national security“.

Allies

In this vision, Rubio has achieved support and allies such as Stephen Millerarchitect of the nationalist politics of immigrationadding to the equation the idea that the changes in Caracas will help stop the arrival of migrants. His hard line also has the support of other prominent figures such as the vice president, JD Vance; the secretary of defense, Pete Hegseth; the director of the CIA; John Ratcliffe; Michael Kensen, a special forces veteran who serves on the National Security Council, and Terrance Coe, of the anti-narcotics agency.

Some warn that Rubio is pushing Trump towards a definitive action against Maduro and John Feeley, who was ambassador in Panama with Obama and Trump until he resigned due to differences with the Republican, has reflected in ‘Politico’ that “Rubio and the most ideological anti-communists in his circle have cornered him with a flimsy pretext against drug trafficking and a massive military escalation. He is beginning to look like a paper tiger if he limits himself to sinking small boats,” he warned.

From the Monroe Doctrine to the ‘Donroe’

Rubio “sees the opportunity for a much more aggressive US policy towards Latin America to advance,” as Geoff Ramnsey, an analyst at the Atlantic Council, explained to AP. And it is also being a key piece for Trump in what the tabloid ‘New York Post’, in one of its sharp witticisms, baptized the “Donroe Doctrine.”

If in the 19th century President James Monroe tried to put a stop to European interference in Latin America and argued that any foreign intervention on the continent was a hostile act towards the United States, now the idea is to end the force of China o Russia in Washington’s sphere of influence. And Mauricio Clave-Carone has verbalized it: “You cannot be the dominant regional power if you are not the dominant regional power.”

Ideological consistency and flexibility

In these months, Rubio, according to his friend and ally Rick Scott, senator and former governor of Florida, “is doing exactly what he has always done” and continues to move with the conviction that, in a geopolitical domino, if Maduro falls, other key and obsessive pieces for him will follow: Nicaragua y Cuba. It also continues to be driven by its entrenched hatred against Latin American autocrats.

Along with that consistency, Rubio is showing remarkable ideological flexibility. If in the past he was a hawk, a firm defender of I’LL TAKE or the sovereignty of Ukrainehas now been moderating its support for interventions abroad, has defended negotiations with Russia and cuts to democratic programs. In terms that directly affect Venezuela, one of his most significant turns has been to ally himself with Trump and Miller and now defend removing the temporary protected status of Venezuelan immigrants.

The political future

What happens in Venezuela will have political consequences for Rubio. Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University, has also told ‘Politico’ that “if Maduro leaves, no matter what happens, it will be good for Rubio.”

In those equations, however, there are some more favorable options. Removing Maduro by force, for example, could reduce his support in the movement. MAGAwhich mostly rejects the idea of interventionismeven in Caracas. The potential overthrow of Maduro may also prove much more problematic than negotiate with the leader of Caracas a way outand fan ghosts of chaos and of economic instability that could fuel the departure of Venezuelans again.

For part of the community with Cuban and Venezuelan roots that has been the base of Trump and Rubio voters in Florida, meanwhile, the expectation is that there will be a regime change and failure to achieve it could result in punishment at the polls for the Republicans.

Rubio, in any case, seems to be playing the long game. Although even Trump has mentioned it as possible successor in 2028, he has said he won’t run if Vance does. If something goes wrong in the region it would represent a potentially bigger problem for the current vice president and, as Curt Mills, director of American Conservative, has said, Rubio “can go back to politics, pretend he wasn’t involved, and run again in 2032 or 2036.”

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