With the second and, according to the constitution, last term of the current president, a centrist, ending in 2027, France is looking for the personality who will manage to block the way to the first president who will come from the far right, whether we are talking about him, who seems to be the candidate of the far-right National Rally.
With the Macron faction still unable to find a candidate to rally around and take on Macron’s heavy legacy, eyes are turning to the left, whose coalition won first place in last year’s National Assembly elections.
And yet there is no consensus, on the contrary, according to analysts, two powerful personalities, Raphael Glixman and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, will want to “come forward”, a fact that can be divisive.
On the one hand, the 46-year-old Gliksman, a rising star of the center-left, MEP and supporter of strengthening Europe’s military power, is in favor of budget cuts and a restructuring of the pension system.
On the other hand, the 74-year-old Mélenchon, who has run unsuccessfully three times to date for France’s highest office, is known for his platform that includes raising the minimum wage, lowering the retirement age to 60 and France leaving NATO.
Their sharp political differences have turned into personal attacks. Through his blog, Mélenchon called Glicksman a “fanatical warmonger” and a “child of the media’s emptiness”, with the latter going on the counterattack calling the head of “Insubordinate France” a “false patriot” who prefers Kremlin propaganda, while presenting their dispute as a fight for “a vision of democracy”.
Risks and poll data
In recent weeks, opinion polls have shown that the Left has a chance of being in the second round of the election, facing the far right.
However, the prospect of victory seems difficult. According to an Odoxa survey, Glicksman would lose the battle with Bardela 42% to 58%, while Melanchon would suffer a crushing defeat 26% to 74%.
The centre-right coalition’s candidates look set to be swept in the first round, with the exception of Emmanuel Macron’s former prime minister, Edouard Philippe, who has seen his ratings steadily decline over the past year.
The opposing strategies
The two gladiators of the Left follow different strategies. Glicksman believes that victory comes through the return of moderates and former Socialist voters who had followed Macron’s centrist movement in 2017. Working with the Socialist Party, he managed to attract 17% of Macron’s voters in the last European elections.
Mélenchon, on the other hand, sees it as crucial to mobilize the working class in urban areas, where turnout is low but his supporters traditionally vote en masse. This “turtle strategy,” as he calls it, has steadily increased his ratings in his previous candidacies.
Both approaches have weaknesses, however. Mélenchon is considered divisive and has come under fire for anti-Semitism, due to his pro-Palestinian rhetoric, and for advocating extreme views.
On the other hand, Gliksman is questioned for his lack of recognition and experience in the pre-election campaign. Within the Socialist Party there is skepticism about promoting a non-party candidate such as Gliksman, who leads his own platform, Place Publique. His recent public appearance in a televised confrontation with far-right Eric Zemur was judged mediocre, even by himself.
“There is a scenario where this is going to turn into a nightmare,” an adviser to the Socialists, who oppose a Glicksman presidential bid, told Politico. “Glicksman will be crushed by a political beast like Melanchon. But there is no possibility that Melanchon will be able to cut the thread first against Bardella.”
The recent polls
However, according to the most recent opinion polls (Odoxa, November 19-20), the percentages of potential presidential candidates are as follows:
Jordan Bardella 35% to 36%
Edouard Philippe 17%
Raphael Glicksman 13.5% to 14.5%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 11% to 12%
Brown Retagio 8% to 10%
Marin Todelier 6% to 6.5%
