The new Real Time Big Data survey released this Tuesday (2) confirms that Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) begins the race for re-election as the absolute favorite among São Paulo voters.
The survey shows the governor ahead in all scenarios in which his name appears, with a significant advantage over the state’s historical opponents, such as Geraldo Alckmin (PSB), Fernando Haddad (PT) and Márcio França (PSB).
In the most competitive scenario, Tarcísio has 45% of voting intentions against 26% for Alckmin. In another simulation, he faces Haddad even more comfortably: 49% to 22%.
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Fernando Haddad appears as the main competitive name on the left, but with a weak performance in the state: he appears behind even Ricardo Nunes in one of the scenarios tested. In a direct duel with Guilherme Derrite, the Finance Minister ties with the former Secretary of Security at 25%.
Among the names tested, Erika Hilton (PSOL) records the highest rejection rate, with 40%. Haddad appears next, with 31%, while Kim Kataguiri (Mission) records 29%. Tarcísio comes in fourth place in the rejection ranking, with 29%, followed by Derrite (28%).
The numbers reinforce that, less than two years before the election, Tarcísio maintains a comfortable position in the state, while Haddad faces persistent resistance in the São Paulo electorate, an additional challenge if the minister enters the dispute to try to regain space in the country’s largest electoral college.
1,500 voters were interviewed between November 29th and December 1st, with a margin of error of three percentage points.
