The US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, will meet with the president of Russia, Vladimir Putin, in Moscow this Tuesday, 2, to discuss the guidelines of a peace plan to end the war in Ukraine. American President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is also expected to participate in the meeting.
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov, the meeting will last “as long as necessary”. The talks will come after a 28-point plan put forward by Washington and Moscow was considered a “capitulation” by officials in Kiev and Brussels.
The more Kremlin-aligned plan would give guarantees to Moscow that Kiev would not join NATO, as well as a promise that the military alliance would not expand closer to the Russian border. The peace formula would also limit the size of the Ukrainian military and require the cession of the Ukrainian regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, which Moscow does not fully control.
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After vocal opposition to the plan, European and Uranian officials met with US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Geneva and managed to move the pendulum of the peace formula towards terms more favorable to Kiev and Brussels.
The proposal was shortened from 28 to 19 points and pleased the Ukrainians, but key points such as Russian territorial demands, a constitutional change that excludes the possibility of Ukrainian membership in NATO and the exact nature of the United States’ security guarantee still need to be discussed.
Negotiation
Over the weekend, American officials met with Ukrainian negotiators in Palm Beach. The talks were considered successful by both sides, but Ukrainian President Volodmir Zelensky said “there is more work to be done.”
Zelenski said the talks in Florida took as their starting point a document that both sides drafted in a previous meeting in Geneva. The Ukrainian leader pointed out that this document had been “finalized”, although he did not explain what this meant.
According to a statement on the social network Telegram, the Ukrainian president highlighted that Kiev was working to ensure that European partners are “substantially involved” in decision-making.
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“Ukrainian intelligence will provide partners with the information we have about Russia’s true intentions and its attempts to use diplomatic efforts as a cover to ease sanctions and block important collective European decisions,” pointed out the leader of Ukraine.
Complications
While this week’s meetings could advance the peace process, few details have been made public. It is still unclear how the envoys will be able to overcome differences between the two sides over basic issues such as who gets what territory. European allies say the road to peace will be long.
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The main concern is securing security guarantees for Ukraine in a post-war future, but officials in Brussels fear Russia’s future territorial ambitions and are trying to formulate a plan to militarily finance Ukraine beyond this year.
Another question is whether Kiev will agree to cede territories to Moscow in exchange for peace. A long-standing position of Zelensky’s is that any truce should freeze current fighting positions, but Putin has reiterated that he wants Ukraine to cede territory to guarantee peace.
The Kremlin announced on Monday, 1, that Russian forces had captured the important city of Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk region, but the information was not confirmed by Kiev.
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The Russian position
Despite saying he is open to negotiating with Trump, Putin is also prepared to continue the war. Even with high losses on the battlefield and economic difficulties due to sanctions, the Russian leader believes he can continue to gain ground with the aim of forcing Kiev to accept more demands before reaching an agreement.
Ukrainian analysts who spoke to the British magazine The Economist point out that Putin will not be ready to negotiate until the end of winter in the Northern Hemisphere, in February. On that date, the Russian leader will have to decide whether to launch a broader round of recruitment and the Russian economy should begin to feel more of the drop in oil revenues and the effect of sanctions.
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For the Russian president, it is necessary to fully annex the provinces of Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson to sell an image of victory to his domestic public.
(With information from the Associated Press).
