Four-way draw behind Marques Mendes. Always wins in the 2nd round, Ventura always loses

Five candidates in the race for the 2nd round. 41.4% believe that the candidate supported by the PSD and CDS will be the next President of the Republic, according to a new survey. It only loses in one indicator: leadership capacity, the crown of which goes to Gouveia e Melo.

Candidate Luís Marques Mendes emerges as favorite in the presidential race on January 18, but the dispute for the second place in the second round is completely fragmented, with four candidates practically tied, according to a new survey by Consulmark2 for .

Marques Mendes leads with 16.9%, followed by four ‘head to head’ candidates: António José Seguro with 13.0%, Henrique Gouveia e Melo with 12.7%, André Ventura with 12.6% and João Cotrim de Figueiredo with 12.2%.

In practice, this is a four-way technical draw for passage to the second round.

Further away in the survey carried out between the 19th and 28th of November are Catarina Martins, with 2.0%, António Filipe, with 1.9%, and Jorge Pinto, who is below 1%.

Nearly 89% of respondents say they intend to vote on January 18th and 52.8% guarantee they already know who they are going to vote for. But almost half (47.2%) admit that they have not yet chosen a candidatean indicator that the formal campaign could be decisive in clarifying the race.

When the undecided voters are distributed, Marques Mendes reinforces his leadership and rises to 22.0%, but the balance scenario remains for second place: Seguro collects 16.9%, Gouveia e Melo 16.6%, Ventura 16.4% and Cotrim 15.9%. Catarina Martins (2.6%), António Filipe (2.5%) and Jorge Pinto (0.8%) remain very far away.

In the perception of voters, the Marques Mendes’ victory seems more likely: 41.4% believe that he will be the next President of the Republic. The candidate leads in indicators such as: better profile for the position, greater credibility, better knowledge of the country’s problems, greater international recognition, proximity to people and ability to dialogue. Only in his leadership capacity is he surpassed by Gouveia and Melo.

In the second round scenarios, Marques Mendes wins all simulated clashes, while André Ventura loses in everyone. Against Ventura, the Social Democrat would reach 64.8%. Against Gouveia e Melo he would win with 46.0% and against António José Seguro with 43.6%. Chega’s leader suffers levels of rejection that put him at a disadvantage in any duel with Marques Mendes, Gouveia e Melo or Seguro.