“Black Death”, oil on canvas by Pieter Breugel (1562)
A volcanic eruption may have led to the arrival of the Black Death in Europe. Climatic data and historical records suggest that crop failures in the 1340s led Italian authorities to import grain from Eastern Europe – which brought, as a stowaway, the plague bacteria.
an outbreak of bubonic plague that killed up to 60% of the population of medieval Europe, may have been triggered by volcanic activity around 1345.
The conclusion is from a new study, the results of which were presented in a published this Thursday in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.
The plague bacteria, Yersinia pestisis transmitted by fleas that feed on rodents and then reach humans through the bites of these infected fleas.
It is not known exactly what caused the 14th century outbreak in Europe, but historical sources suggest that Italy may have played a role.
«The Black Death is a central event of the Middle Ages and I wanted to understand why such an extraordinary quantity of cereal had to be brought to Italy precisely in 1347», he explains Martin Bellyfrom the Leibniz Institute for the History and Culture of Eastern Europe, in Germany, and first author of the study, cited by .
To investigate this hypothesis, Bauch and colleague Ulf Büntgenfrom the University of Cambridge, analyzed climate evidence from ring data tree growth, ice cores and written reports.
Observers in Japan, China, Germany, France and Italy independently reported a reduced sunlight and an increase in cloudiness between 1345 and 1349 — probably, result of an eruption volcanic rich in sulfur, or from several eruptions, in an unknown tropical location, suggest Bauch and Büntgen.
Ice cores collected in Greenland and Antarcticaas well as thousands of wood samples analyzed by growth rings in eight different European regions, also point to the occurrence of a dramatic climate event.
Furthermore, investigators found official records showing that, given the famine caused by cold and crop failurethe Italian authorities implemented, in 1347, a emergency plan to import cereal to the Mongols of the Golden Horde, in the region of the Sea of Azov.
«They acted in a highly professional, rational and efficient mannerand managed to achieve the objective of alleviating high prices and imminent hunger through the import of cereal, before deaths from starvation were recorded», describes Bauch.
«Precisely because these societies practiced excellent hunger prevention, the plague bacteria arrived in Italy as a stowawaybrought with the cereal», he adds.
At the time, the cause of the plague was unknown and the outbreak was attributed to factors such as «astral constellations and toxic vapors released into the atmosphere by earthquakes», he recalls.
Although the plague could end up reaching Europe anywayit is possible that population losses would have been lower if this emergency response had not occurred, admits Bauch.
“My argument is not against preparation, but rather in favor of the awareness that effective precautionary measures in a given sphere may end up create problems in unexpected areas».
Aparna Lala researcher at the Australian National University in Canberra, who was not involved in the study, considers it very likely that there was “a perfect storm of factors» at the origin of the arrival of the Black Death in Europe.
However, more work will be needed to distinguish correlation from causationemphasizes. “The short-term disruptions caused by the eruptions appear to have had a considerable impact on local weather patterns, as is documented, but whether they were the cause of the Black Death’s entry into Europe, as is claimed, requires more evidence», concludes Lal.
