The recovery in government approval (PT), which had been recorded between the two most recent surveys, stagnated in the institute’s new survey. 32% of respondents consider the management to be good or excellent, while 37% rate it as bad or terrible, and 30% see it as regular.
approval was 33%, disapproval was 38% and the regular rate was 28%. Considering the margin of error of plus or minus two percentage points, there is stability in the scenario.
At that moment, at the beginning of September, the picture was more encouraging for Planalto, as the excellent/good had registered an increase of four points compared to the previous survey, in July. Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters in 113 cities across the country from Tuesday (2) to Thursday (4).
What has changed since then? In the previous survey, Lula seemed to have begun to surf the wave of a moment of recovery in
The symbol of the polar opposite to that of the PT member, (), was already under house arrest and would be condemned by the Federal Supreme Court just two days after the conclusion of the fieldwork by Datafolha researchers.
In the international field, the American president who mixed Bolsonaro’s defense with his own by imposing import surcharges on Brazil was still on the rise.
On the 7th of September, one day before the collection of questionnaires for that research began, the PT member saw something unfurled on Avenida Paulista that even irritated some Bolsonaro leaders because it was so clumsy.
That wave spread, not without major impacts, from there to here. Lula met with Trump in Malaysia, starting a rapprochement that has already seen the removal of some of the tariffs imposed on Brazilian products and, depending on a possible American attack on Venezuela.
Bolsonaro was arrested on November 22nd. Three days later, the Supreme Court declared his sentence to 27 years and three months final for the 2022 coup attempt.
Already retired to the PF of Brasília, Bolsonaro began to bleed his political capital, with the discussion about who will be the candidate of his political group — his son, senator Flávio, perhaps to end up as vice-president of Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicanos-SP) or splitting the right once and for all.
In the opposite direction, Lula saw his problems grow more common and distant from popular interest, in this case with the series of defeats imposed on the government in Congress — in particular in , where since the PT member appointed attorney general Jorge Messias and not Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), former president of the House and sponsored by the current one, (União Brasil-AP).
During the period, the PT member also reaped a victory, the Income Tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000, last Sunday (30).
Its electoral potential is not visible yet. In the range most directly affected by the measure, those who earn between 2 and 5 minimum wages, Lula saw an increase in this survey of four points in its approval, something within the margin of error of the specific segment.
When asking for an evaluation of the president’s personal work, stability remains the same, although better than when the topic is his government. Among the total sample, 49% approve of Lula, compared to 48% in the previous survey, and the other half disapprove of him: the same 48% as in the September survey.
Finally, another event of great impact in the period, the deadly Rio police operation last month, given the difficulty of the left in dealing with the issue. The subsequent failure of the right in the congressional debate may have nullified this, but it is speculation that comes up against the usual lack of interest in what happens in Parliament.
In general, Datafolha pointed to the maintenance of the president’s approval profiles, which otherwise follow electoral preferences in general. People aged 60 or over (40%), the least educated (44%), people from the Northeast (43%) and Catholics (40%) consider their government to be excellent and above the national average.
Likewise, groups with a higher incidence of Bolsonarism and/or anti-PTism disapprove of it more: 46% of those with higher education, 53% of those who earn 5 to 10 minimum wages, southerners (45%) (49%).
The scenario, in any case, was worse for the PT member. At the beginning of the year, he was pressured by the political climate and issues such as the Pix crisis. From 35% excellent/good in December 2024, in February, the worst index of all his three terms at the helm of Planalto.
Now, it boasts numbers that are pale compared to its own performance in the other two governments, from 2003 to 2010. In the second, it had 72% approval and 6% disapproval at that time, for example. But it surpasses rival Bolsonaro, who at this point in the turbulent 2021 pandemic scored 53% bad/terrible and 22% excellent/good.
