Three hypotheses can explain the former president’s nomination for the 2026 presidential race.
The first, more accurate, concerns Bolsonaro’s attempt to maintain his influence and control over the right even from prison.
This Friday’s announcement (5) comes at a time when everything is wide open — from the attacks by federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL) on the governor to the union of the former president’s children against their stepmother, .
In this sense, Flávio’s appointment is a message to show who is in charge and a direction to unite the right under Bolsonaro’s tutelage.
It is noteworthy that the former president’s movement occurs in the week in which Michelle is the political leader.
When forming an alliance with the former minister in Ceará, the former first lady acted in disagreement with the party’s guidance, which had the support of Bolsonaro himself.
Michelle didn’t back down and, in the end, it was Flávio who did it. The PL also put a damper on the episode. Members of the party assessed that the militancy sided with the former first lady.
Bolsonaro has little to gain by publicly reprimanding Michelle or breaking up with her, considering his great popularity with right-wing voters.
Thus, Flávio’s choice could be a veiled attempt to put a stone under the woman’s ambitions, who was even considered for the presidential ticket.
Even though he didn’t fry Michelle — as that could mean frying himself —, Bolsonaro empowers Flávio at a critical moment and anoints his son, an extension of himself, as his successor.
The other two hypotheses for this Friday’s announcement do not exclude the first. In one of them, the former president is in fact willing to support Flávio’s candidacy until the end.
In a second round scenario against President Lula (PT), than Tarcísio, Michelle and the governor of Paraná, according to a Datafolha survey published in August. The PT member scored 48%, against 37% for Flávio.
A survey by Quaest in September showed that only 1% of those interviewed cited the senator as the figure who should replace Bolsonaro.
Following this hypothesis, the numbers indicate that the former president would be willing to rig the presidential election in exchange for maintaining political capital with the clan.
Some PL parliamentarians also assess that Flávio’s candidacy could engage activists more than another more central candidate.
With more appeal on the ticket, according to this reading, the party could elect a larger bench for the Senate, today the main objective of the Bolsonaro family and the party. These senators would carry out the defense of the impeachment of ministers and the amnesty for the former president and those convicted on January 8th.
Flávio’s candidacy, however, does not please the center. According to a party leader, the senator does not unite the center and should remain isolated. It cannot be ruled out that other right-wing candidacies will be launched in this case. The Presidency for Bolsonaro’s son would be even further away.
The last hypothesis is that the former president’s announcement is just a message or a bluff. Parliamentarians are not sure that Bolsonaro will even support Flávio’s nomination.
First, because the former president is unstable. Second, because allies believe that the senator is . When decreeing Bolsonaro’s preventive detention, minister Alexandre de Moraes expressly cited Flávio.
that the vigil called by him was an indication of “repetition of the modus operandi of the criminal organization led by the aforementioned defendant [Jair Bolsonaro]”, and that the video published by the senator to call for the act “incites disrespect for the constitutional text, the judicial decision and the institutions themselves, demonstrating that there are no limits to the criminal organization in the attempt to cause social chaos and conflicts in the country”.
The assessment in the political world is that Flávio has a glass ceiling and that, if he really is a candidate, a false step could cost him dearly.
Believing in judicial persecution against his family, it is not certain that Bolsonaro is willing to risk his son’s future, who is already in his office as a state deputy.
