For those around the PT member, a member of the Bolsonaro family as an opponent maintains the polarizing climate of 2022, which ended in victory for the left
Members of the Lula government (PT) celebrated the nomination of senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) to be the right-wing candidate for Planalto in 2026. The PT members’ assessment is that the son of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is an “easier” opponent than the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans).
For those around Lula, a member of the Bolsonaro family as an opponent maintains the polarizing climate of 2022, which ended in victory for the left. The assessment is that Flavio would have more difficulty winning votes from undecided voters, closing agreements with centrist parties and obtaining support from large businesspeople.
Tarcísio, on the other hand, has strong support from leaders at Centrão, the financial market and agribusiness. With a more discreet and measured style than Bolsonaro, he also has more appeal to win over undecided voters.
Silently, the PT also celebrates the wear and tear within the right and the Centrão. The announcement of Flavio’s nomination was not discussed by the parties and generated discomfort among leaders.
Tarcísio still on the radar
Despite Bolsonaro’s nomination, members of the government still believe that the governor of São Paulo has a good chance of running as Bolsonaro’s sponsor.
The reading is similar to that of Centrão leaders, who still trust in the governor’s candidacy. The assessment of important party chiefs is that the Bolsonaro family’s movement is nothing more than a ‘trial balloon’. Allies of the governor of São Paulo also believe that this endorsement from the former president may not be definitive, as it brings numerous political disadvantages for the PL, which could end up isolated in next year’s election.
Centrão still wants to build an agreement for Tarcísio to be the candidate with Bolsonaro’s blessing, and threatens to launch its own candidacies if Flavio does not back down. The governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado, for example, said again today that he remains a pre-candidate. Ratinho Jr., from Paraná, is also highly rated.
Flavio’s recommendation
Former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL) nominated his eldest son, senator Flavio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) to run in the election for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026. The PL and the congressman himself confirmed the information.
PL president, Valdemar da Costa Neto, confirmed Bolsonaro’s choice. “Our Captain ratified the candidacy. Bolsonaro spoke, it is said,” he said.
The firstborn was not considered one of the favorites by experts. The governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans), is seen as the strongest name to compete for the Planalto with Lula and has strong support from leaders from Centrão, the financial market and agribusiness.
More popular than his brother among Bolsonarists, Eduardo lost strength when he left Brazil and articulated sanctions against the country in the United States. Former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro is cited for “softening” the image of Bolsonarism and for its potential to win the female vote. The lack of political experience, however, weighs against her, as she entered into a collision course with her stepchildren and made the PL withdraw support for Ciro Gomes in the race for the government of Ceará.
Experienced in politics, senator Flavio Bolsonaro, who has been in the Upper House of Congress since 2019, talks more with the center, and even with the left, than his brothers. The more pragmatic characteristic tends to help in building alliances, but must suffer rejection from the more radical Bolsonarist wing.
