The European Union’s decision to end imports of Russian gas by 2027 is already shaking up the European energy market. According to ECO, which heard several sector experts, the announced cut could cause pressure on prices during the coming months, despite the value of gas having immediately dropped after the agreement that Ursula von der Leyen classified as “historic”. The oscillation has a simple explanation: initial disbelief in the announced deadlines and, at the same time, fear that the search for more expensive alternatives, namely liquefied natural gas, will make the market more expensive in the short term.
According to the publication, the decision represents a profound political shift, as it formalizes the end of European dependence on Russian gas, a decades-old link. Paulo Rosa, senior economist at Banco Carregosa, considers that the technical replacement of Russian gas is “largely guaranteed”, but recognizes that the change is bold from a political point of view. Nuno Mello, analyst at XTB, highlights the symbolic weight of the agreement and the inevitable geopolitical impact.
Different dependencies, different impacts
According to ECO, several countries in Central and Eastern Europe remain heavily exposed to Russian gas, especially Hungary, Slovakia and Austria, which maintain long-term contracts with Gazprom and have limited access to LNG terminals. The same source adds that France, Belgium, Spain and the Netherlands still import significant volumes of LNG of Russian origin, which will make the adaptation process more demanding, although with greater scope for diversification.
Germany, historically Russia’s largest customer, stopped receiving gas via pipeline in 2022, but continues to adjust its infrastructure. According to Carregosa bank, the most dependent countries are now at greater risk of facing price spikes, physical constraints and direct impacts on highly energy-intensive industries.
The experts cited by ECO agree that adaptation will require accelerated investments, reinforcement of gas pipeline supply through allied countries and expansion of renewables. Diversification is already underway, with emphasis on greater imports from the United States, Norway, Qatar and Nigeria.
Prices may rise before stabilizing
One day after the announcement, the price of Dutch TTF gas fell by 3.3%, reaching 27.28 euros per megawatt-hour, the lowest value in 18 months. However, according to Energy Intelligence, cited by ECO, this decline could be temporary. Some more dependent countries, such as Hungary and Slovakia, are expected to contest the measure, fueling additional uncertainty.
Paulo Rosa warns that, in the short term, the elimination of Russian gas could put pressure on prices due to the greater use of LNG, which is substantially more expensive than gas transported by pipeline. Nuno Ribeiro da Silva also foresees an increase, highlighting that Russian gas is cheaper, but that the European decision has an ethical and strategic weight in a context of war.
Still, according to ECO, the market has already absorbed much of the structural impact of the reduction in Russian imports, and TTF prices are approaching pre-war levels. There are, however, risks that could introduce volatility during the winter, such as cold snaps, increased Asian demand or disruptions at LNG terminals.
For 2027, with consolidated diversification, greater storage capacity and reinforcement of renewables, experts believe that the market should stabilize with predictable prices, although structurally above those practiced in the 2010s.
Portugal practically does not feel direct impact
According to ECO, Portugal is among the countries least exposed to the European cut, as it does not depend on Russian gas pipelines and imports almost exclusively LNG through Sines, mainly from Nigeria and the USA. In 2025, Russian gas imports represented around 5% of the national total, an easily replaceable share.
Even so, warns Nuno Mello, the country can be affected indirectly, through price formation in European markets. The reinforcement of LNG imports, improved infrastructure and interconnections with Spain ensure that supply is not at risk.
In the medium term, Paulo Rosa anticipates that fiscal adjustments may be considered if prices exceed undesirable levels, to protect consumers and industry.
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