Brazilian redemocratization is marked by contradictions. If the country and the Congress that mirrors it are kingdoms of low extraction conservatism, federal power spent 20 years in the hands of , even if only nominally.
The boredom that emerged on the streets in 2013 and in its mutation to the right in 2016 led to Bolsonarism, which took advantage of the implosion of the political system via corruption and Lava Jato to propose a new paradigm — as proved.
If at the beginning of the dictatorship they only embarked on the project, it would soon enchant sectors of finance and business and, most importantly, gain popular traction. Broken, the traditional system and the left witnessed the rise of today’s prisoner ().
It is notable how the then president said he was dedicated to destroying the system, only to embrace it when his uproar became an existential risk in 2021. That year, the centrão took over the government and the current semi-presidentialism was launched in the form of a sea of amendments.
ineligible, condemned and imprisoned with no visible horizon of freedom, Bolsonaro now demands the final price for the choice that the right, for the most part, made in embracing him. He wants to remain at the symbolic helm of the ship.
of his son Flávio, who before the governor (Republicanos-SP) was considered in Brasília a Bolsonaro who proverbially knew how to use cutlery, may or may not be a farce, but his objective has already been achieved.
The PL-RJ senator forces Tarcísio and the center to make impossible choices, a political Strait of Messina in which both sides of the vessels threaten them.
If they support Flávio, which keen observers believe is inevitable at first, the São Paulo governor and others will gain the radioactivity of the Bolsonaro surname.
A look at the rejection of those who currently carry it is clear: the four candidates, including the former president, are at a level that only (PT) can reach. After his father, Flávio is the worst placed, with 38% of voters who would never vote for him.
The research offers the rational argument for a break: the Bolsonaros would perform much worse in the inevitable second round against the PT if the election were held today.
The competitive right-wing governors, Tarcísio and . (PSD-PR), come much closer to the president and have minimal rejections, a golden combination in the hands of a good marketer.
In Greek mythology, Odysseus on the side of Scylla, who ate some sailors but would spare the ship. If the right goes that way, it will become traitors and could lose the 20% of the electorate that Datafolha identifies as faithful to Bolsonarism, which would go to someone from the clan.
Thus, taking into account the distance of the election, tactical retreats aimed at weaning Bolsonaroism by 2030 and pulverizing names are tempting options, and peremptory declarations will now only serve to gain time.
