China’s economic influence in Central Asia is growing. China’s trade surplus with the region increased significantly in the first ten months of 2025, according to official data.
China is increasing its economic influence in Central Asia. This was shown by official data from the government in Beijing. TASR informs about it based on a Reuters report.
- China is increasing its economic influence in Central Asia.
- Trade with Kyrgyzstan will exceed its total GDP in 2025.
- Smuggling and circumvention of sanctions affect economic indicators.
- Turkmenistan was the only one to record a positive trade balance.
- China has a trade surplus with all Central Asian countries.
According to these data, China’s trade surplus with Central Asian countries increased significantly in the first ten months of 2025 compared to the same period of the previous year in 2024.
Increasing trade with Kyrgyzstan
At the same time, Beijing’s surplus in trade with Kyrgyzstan rose the most, to USD 23.6 billion (EUR 20.27 billion) from USD 17.4 billion last year. Also worth noting is the fact that according to Kyrgyz government statistics, the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first ten months of 2025 reached approximately $16.3 billion. This means that trade with China has been greater than all goods and services produced in Kyrgyzstan so far this year.
However, this large discrepancy in data can be explained by large-scale smuggling and sanctions evasion operations against Russia, in which goods worth billions of dollars cross the border from China to Kyrgyzstan without being recorded in official Kyrgyz statistics.
Surpluses with other countries as well
China’s trade surplus with Kazakhstan also increased to $39.8 billion in the first ten months of 2025 from $36.5 billion a year ago. For Uzbekistan, it rose to $12.9 billion from $11.1 billion and Tajikistan to $3.5 billion from $3.3 billion, according to official Chinese data.
Turkmenistan is a regional exception, as it is the only Central Asian country to record a positive trade balance with China, with China importing more than $8.1 billion worth of goods from Turkmenistan in 2025, while its exports to the country amounted to just $784 million. However, Turkmenistan’s trade volume with China decreased to $8.3 billion in the first ten months of 2025 from $8.9 billion a year earlier.
China’s trade balance with other Central Asian countries is in favor of Beijing.
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