senator from -RJ who declared his father’s name for the 2026 election, is only seen as ideal to be launched by the former president by 8% of Brazilian voters. 22% prefer the former first lady Michelle and the governor (Republicanos-SP), 20%.
This is what the new survey on next year’s presidential succession measured, in which the right sees itself divided with its main name arrested and ineligible, while the left camp is concentrated around the president (PT).
The institute interviewed 2,002 people from December 2nd to 4th, before Flávio’s announcement that he would be the candidate. The photograph does not favor the senator, from the center.
In July, 23% cited Michelle as the name that should be nominated by (PL) to run for President. The index has now risen to 22%, a fluctuation in the survey’s margin of error of two points. Tarcísio had 21% and fluctuated to 20%. The governor. (PSD-PR) also varied, from 10% to 12%, while Flávio’s brother, the exiled deputy Eduardo (PL-SP), went from 11% to 9%.
The senator from Rio de Janeiro also fluctuated, from 9% to 8%, in a stability also registered by governors Ronaldo Caidado (União Brasil-GO), who got 6%, and (Novo-MG), which went from 5% to 4%.
Not that Bolsonaro’s support is, according to the voters interviewed, For 50% of them, a name nominated by the former president would never receive their vote. 26% say the opposite, that they would definitely go with a Bolsonarista with a seal of origin, and 21%, that they might do so. 3% did not know how to answer.
Even due to the obvious “recall”, Bolsonaro is the second most remembered name in the spontaneous survey carried out by Datafolha, with 7% of citations for the Presidency. Lula leads this ranking with 24%, while Tarcísio (2%) ties with Ratinho Jr. (1%).
As per the current rule, the former president sentenced to 27 years and 3 months for an attempted coup by the Supreme Court will only be able to contest in the distant 2060, when he will be 105 years old if he is alive, for the presumed heirs.
Due to his political and economic weight, Tarcísio, an unknown Bolsonaro Infrastructure Minister who served discreetly under the governments of Dilma Rousseff (PT) and Michel Temer (MDB), being selected by the then boss for the dispute in the state he barely knew in 2022, emerged as the obvious name.
But Bolsonaro’s oblivion forced the family to redo calculations, in the right-wing scenario. This is how the nomination announced by Flávio himself was read, among party leaders from the center and the center, on Friday (5).
It now remains to convince, to begin with, a group estimated at 20% of the electorate in a cut made by Datafolha that takes into account factors such as voting in 2022 and its regret.
It is a segment with characteristics that match those of a Bolsonarist: male, more evangelical than Catholic, white, middle to upper class.
In this group, Michelle is seen as having to anoint to carry her flag against Lula’s in 2026: 35% of those heard think so. 30%, a technical tie in the calculated specific margin of error, prefer the governor of São Paulo.
The two other candidates from the Bolsonaro family are much further behind: they want 14% as a candidate from the Eduardo clan, compared to just 9% who cite the announced chosen one, Flávio. Further behind are Caiado, with 4% of citations, and Zema, with 2%.
