Senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) is the right-wing name tipped to run for the Presidency of the Republic in 2026 with the worst performance in a possible second round against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), showed a Datafolha survey released on Saturday. According to the survey, names from the Bolsonaro family are also more rejected by voters than governors located on the right. The rejection rate for governors is, in general, around 20% while that of Bolsonaros exceeds 35%.
If he were to run for president, Flávio Bolsonaro, who announced his pre-candidacy for the Planalto Palace on Friday, would be 15 points behind the PT candidate in a possible second round. Flávio would receive 36% of the votes, while Lula would receive 51%. Blank and null votes would total 12%. The margin of error is plus or minus 2 points. The son of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) is rejected by 38% of those interviewed in the survey.
Flávio’s performance would be similar to that of other members of the Bolsonaro family. Federal deputy Eduardo Bolsonaro (PL-SP) would have 35% of voting intentions in a second round against the current president, while former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) would have 39%. In the margin of error, the three are practically tied in rejection by those interviewed by Datafolha: 37% said they would not vote for Eduardo at all, while 35% said the same about Michelle.
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According to the survey, rejection of Lula reaches 44%. If he could run in next year’s elections, Jair Bolsonaro would be the candidate with the highest disapproval rate, 45%. Currently, the former president is ineligible because he was convicted of plotting a coup after being defeated by Lula in the 2022 presidential elections.
Governors
In terms of voting potential, Lula shows a greater advantage over the Bolsonaro family’s candidates, but, according to the survey, victory in the second round would be closer against the governors of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) and of Paraná, Ratinho Jr. (PSD).
In a possible second round, the PT member would beat the current governor of São Paulo with 47% of the votes compared to Tarcísio’s 42%. According to Datafolha, in a simulation with the names of Lula and Ratinho Jr., the current president would have 47% of the votes, while the governor of Paraná would have 41%. Considering the rejection rate, Tarcísio de Freitas’ rate is 20%, higher than that of the governor of Goiás, Ronaldo Caiado (União Brasil), who records 18%, and lower than that of Ratinho Jr, of the governor of Minas Gerais, Romeu Zema (Novo). Both Ratinho Jr. and Zema have a 21% rejection rate.
Datafolha interviewed 2,002 voters from Tuesday to Thursday, before Flávio’s announcement. The survey was carried out in 113 municipalities and interviewed voters over 16 years of age. The survey’s margin of error is two points. Lula maintained his advantage over his opponents, considering the institute’s previous survey, from July.
And what about PT?
The government leader in the Chamber of Deputies, José Guimarães (PT-CE), said yesterday that the right has been “without a compass” since the arrest of former president Jair Bolsonaro (PL), and the former president “is right” in choosing senator Flávio Bolsonaro (PL-RJ) as his pre-candidate for the Planalto.
“The division of the right strengthens our field. With something like this, will Tarcísio leave the government of São Paulo? I think it’s difficult. Whoever wants everything ends up with nothing”, said Guimarães. “They are out of compass with Bolsonaro’s arrest. There is no right-wing leadership that can unify them. Bolsonaro doesn’t want Tarcísio to take the lead.”
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The government leader also mentioned what he considered other “contributions” from the opposition to the Lula government. “There (in Ceará) Michelle went and made a great contribution”, he stated, in reference to the episode in which the former first lady went to the stage of pre-candidate for the state government Eduardo Girão (Novo) and criticized Ciro Gomes (PSDB), also a pre-candidate for the position, who was arranging an alliance with the Ceará PL. After Michelle’s criticism, the alliance between the PL and the PSDB in Ceará went off the rails.
Guimarães defined RJ, SP and MG as the crucial states for the PT in the 2026 election. In Rio de Janeiro, the PT alliance is already closed. The party will launch federal deputy Benedita da Silva (PT-RJ) for the Senate and will support the candidacy of the capital’s mayor, Eduardo Paes (PSD), for state government.
In the other two states, the situation is uncertain. In SP, the PT could launch the Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, for the Palácio dos Bandeirantes dispute, or support vice-president Geraldo Alckmin (PSB). In Minas Gerais, the PT is still looking for an alliance to define the name it will support in the dispute.
