And it is getting old: the country where most of them were born now also faces this challenge.
For decades, France was the shining exception to the low birth rate that afflicts Europe. However, this trend is reversing: for the first time since the end of World War II, in 2025 France is expected to have more deaths than births.
At the same time, the number of children per woman, while still higher than the European average – 1.6 children per woman in France compared to 1.4 on average in the EU – is moving further away from the population replacement limit.
In addition, France is steadily aging due to the increase in life expectancy. These are some of the conclusions drawn from the report on the effects of the Demographic on public finances, which was made public this week by the French Auditing Conference.
Threat to the social model
According to INSEE, France’s statistical authority (corresponding to ELSTAT), by 2070 the percentage of people over 65 may reach a third of the population. If this trend is verified, it will have very significant implications for public finances, the sustainability of the social model, the health and elderly care sector – where needs will skyrocket – as well as the available workforce which will be reduced.
With fewer active workers, therefore fewer contributions, and more public spending due to an aging population, France is facing an unprecedented challenge, to which French President Emmanuel Macron said in January 2024 that a “demographic restructuring” was needed.
Subfertility before 2015
Speaking to Monde, Didier Breton, professor at the School of Social Sciences of the University of Strasbourg and researcher at the National Institute for Demographic Studies (INED), points out that INSEE recorded that the decline in births in France began a little more than ten years ago and that it intensified after 2023. Until recently, some social scientists considered that these fluctuations were possibly temporary and did not rule out a recovery, as seen in the 1990s.
However, an INED study published last summer, in the journal Population & Sociétés, highlights new evidence: the desire of the French to have children has decreased, the percentage of young French who say they do not want to have children has more than doubled, reaching 20%, while the percentage of those who wish to have three children has also decreased significantly.
Why do the French not want children?
The decision to have a child, as stated in the main article of Monde (5/12/2025), is highly personal and influenced by a multitude of factors. However, identifying and addressing them, while important, is likely insufficient to revitalize demographic dynamics.
The low birth rate in France now concerns all ages while at the same time the country is entering, as Breton emphasizes, the period in which the numerous baby-boom generations (1945-1974) begin to pass away. The number of deaths is increasing not because of a sudden deterioration in the health of the population, but because many people are now reaching high-risk ages. This trend is expected to continue over the next thirty years.
Immigration as a solution to demographics
The only factor in population growth, according to most social scientists, is immigration. In the near future, population growth will depend solely on immigration, which remains a political choice: a state chooses to increase or limit immigration flows. Notably, France, where the public discourse on immigration is often negative, may not be considered an attractive destination for people to immigrate to.
However, based on the estimates of the French Court of Auditors, even immigration will not be able to cover the problem in its entirety, even if France will hardly be able to do without the reinforcement of labor force from abroad – unless it accepts further demographic shrinkage. The solutions to the problem, although unpopular, are concrete and inevitable: the improvement of the employment rate and, above all, the readjustment of the pension system.
Next week in the French National Assembly, where the 2026 budget is being debated, a parliamentary committee will be set up to examine the causes and consequences of the declining birthrate. This is a timid, first step of reflection on an issue that has so far been absent from the budget discussions.
