Members of the government (PT) assess that the launch of () for the presidential contest will facilitate an attack on the parties in the center, whether this candidacy is valid or not.
Although they are divided over those of the former president (PL), Lula’s allies see an opportunity to flirt with parties that are currently part of the government, but threatened to unify around the name of the governor of , (Republicans).
As shown in the Panel column, Sheetmembers of the centrão assess that Bolsonaro’s bet on Flávio.
In this calculation, the dispersion of the right would allow agreements to be reached at least for the neutrality of the center parties, as happened in 2022.
Lula’s ministers are working with two hypotheses for Bolsonaro’s decision. A wing of the government believes that the former president would only be interested in preserving his political power until next year to negotiate his support for another candidate under better conditions. In this case, Flávio would also benefit from keeping his name in the spotlight right now with a view to the campaign to try to be re-elected to the .
In Lula’s team, there are also those who believe in the veracity of Flávio’s candidacy as a way of keeping all of the Bolsonaros’ political capital with the family, even at the risk of defeat for Lula in the elections. The strategy would be to prevent the dilution of this wealth among centrist candidates.
A sector of Lulistas who are betting on Flávio’s candidacy in 2026 assesses that it is, in fact, aimed at 2030. This reasoning is based on the assumption that the opponent who goes with Lula to the second round, if the PT member is re-elected, will lead the opposition in the following four years and will be a consolidated name for the subsequent election.
These Lula collaborators agree on one point: Bolsonaro’s name returned to the center of the electoral debate at a time when Tarcísio was monopolizing attention on the right.
Allies of the President of the Republic remember that, in his conversations, he repeats that he does not choose opponents. But the newness will require a change in your communication.
Today focused on criticism of Tarcísio’s management and the presentation of the governor of São Paulo as a system candidate, the strategy will emphasize the comparison with the Bolsonaro government.
The tone of not choosing an opponent does not prevent the president’s allies from speaking out. The minister of the General Secretariat, for example, provoked Flávio on X, formerly Twitter. “Lula defeated Bolsonaro in 2022. Now we’re going to defeat his son in 2026. Just don’t faint in the debate, Flávio Bolsonaro!”, said the minister, in reference to the debate in the 2016 campaign.
The PT, Lula’s party, is hesitant to start organizing itself for an electoral campaign with Flávio as its opponent because the leadership of the party is not sure that he will actually run for president.
PT leaders assess that the Bolsonarist political group is undergoing constant changes. The most prudent thing for them would be to wait until the applications are more defined, in the middle to the end of the first half of next year, and then decide what to do.
If the scenario with Flávio is consolidated, Lula’s supporters see a greater possibility of obtaining support from other parties for the president’s candidacy for re-election, as the senator would carry Bolsonaro’s high level of rejection from the beginning of the campaign.
PT members also note that candidates for governor, senator and deputy allied with Lula would gain more strength in the Northeast and Pará, in addition to the north of Minas Gerais, with a candidacy from Flávio. These are regions where Bolsonaro lost the second round in 2022 and which tend to reject the former president’s political group.
