A year after the fall of Assad, more than a decade since the start of the civil war, Syria is trying to recover (some) normality

Damascus and other cities in the country are preparing to celebrate the first anniversary without Bashar al-Assad, who fled to Russia precisely a year ago after the capture of the capital by rebels led by Ahmed al-Sharaa. Now interim president, Al-Sharaa says there will be elections within four years, given fears of persecution of minorities and lack of representation in power structures

It was exactly one year ago, on December 8, 2024, that the authoritarian regime of Bashar al-Assad. More than 13 years after the outbreak of a bloody civil war sparked by the Arab Spring, which sought to depose Assad, a year ago the dictator – increasingly isolated internationally – gave in to pressure and fled to Russia, where he remains to this day.

The seat of power was not empty: in just a few days, a man was once declared a terrorist by the USA and the rest of the international community. And a year later, Syrians continue to search for stability and normalcy, a fragmented nation struggling to recover from nearly a decade and a half of civil war and more than half a century of dictatorship.

It all happened when rebels led by Syria’s now interim president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, took over Damascus, forcing Assad to flee to Putin’s Russia, his last ally. A year later, celebrations are planned for this Monday in Umayyad Square, in the center of Damascus, the capital, which in recent days has been full of jubilant demonstrations in anticipation of December 8th. Similar celebrations are expected in several other cities across the country, as well as parades and military parades.

To mark the occasion, Al-Sharaa took advantage of Monday’s early morning prayers at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus to, dressed in military uniforms – like those he wore during the victorious rebel campaign led by his Islamist group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, – promise to build a just and strong Syria.

“From north to south and from east to west, God willing, we will rebuild a strong Syria with a structure suited to its present and its past,” promised the interim president, quoted by the state agency SANA.

Fragmented country

A former commander of Al-Qaeda, Al-Sharaa promoted major changes last year that reshaped Syria’s relations with the rest of the world, forging diplomatic relations with Donald Trump’s USA, which welcomed him last month at the White House, and winning the support of the Gulf Arab States and also Turkey. On the other hand, he distanced himself from Assad’s two biggest supporters, Russia and Iran. With this, he managed to have a large part of the Western sanctions that had paralyzed Syria for more than a decade removed.

When he took power a year ago, he promised to end the brutal repressive police state of the Assad dynasty, replacing it with an inclusive and just order. But hundreds of people have been killed over the last 12 months in episodes of sectarian violence that have provoked new forced population displacements and fueled great distrust among minorities.

In the northeast of the country, controlled by the Kurds, the local administration banned meetings or events this Monday citing “security reasons” and citing activities of suspected “terrorist cells” that intend to exploit the occasion. Like , the Syrian Kurdish administration has tried to safeguard its regional autonomy, while in the south, some Druze (a minority sect that is a branch of Islam) continue to demand the independence of the southern province of Sweida, since hundreds of people were killed in July in fatal clashes with government forces.

At the Doha Forum, which took place this weekend in Qatar and where different leaders from the Middle East were debating the future of the Gaza Strip and the entire region, Al-Sharaa reiterated that his government will hold accountable those involved in the abuses that occurred at the beginning of the year in the coastal area of ​​Syria, when hundreds of Alawites, another ethnic minority, many of whom supported the Assad regime, were killed.

Despite the atrocities committed, the Syrian leader assured in a CNN International interview, the country is a State of Law and strengthening the Rule of Law is the way to guarantee the rights of all minorities.

And the elections?

At the same forum in Qatar, the Syrian president said that “Syria is experiencing its best moments today” and stated that the transition period he is leading will continue for another four years, to establish institutions, laws and a new Constitution, which will be submitted to a referendum before the next elections.

At this time, and under the provisional Constitution approved in March this year, Al-Sharaa holds broad executive powers. In October, the transitional authorities organized an indirect vote to form a parliament that would replace Syria’s legislative branch until the next vote, scheduled for 2029. The vote, in which only a small fraction of the population was able to participate, was due to a lack of representation of women and minorities. Under the same provisional constitution, the Syrian leader still has to select a third of the 210 members of this transitional parliament.

The Assad family, belonging to Syria’s Alawite minority, ruled the country for 54 years. In 2011, inspired by the Arab Spring, a large section of the population tried to depose Bashar al-Assad, Hafez’s son and successor. The protests were harshly repressed and Syria plunged into a civil war that, in more than 13 years, caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and displacement, leading around five million Syrians to take refuge in neighboring countries or Europe.

The UN refugee agency said on Monday that around 1.2 million refugees, as well as 1.9 million internally displaced people, have returned home since the fall of Assad a year ago. But given the problems that Syria still faces, many others may be deterred from returning to their home country.

Economic growth?

At a conference organized by Reuters last week, the governor of Syria’s Central Bank said the return of some 1.5 million refugees is helping the country’s economy grow, although the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs maintains that humanitarian needs across Syria remain severe, with 1.65 million people in need of aid by 2025.

At the Doha Forum this weekend, Al-Sharaa said that, on his recent visit to Washington, he met with members of the US Congress to try to get them to approve the end of Caesar’s Law, under which the US continues to apply economic sanctions on Syria. “There was a great understanding and I believe we are 95% of the way there”, highlighted the Syrian president.

The country’s economic situation, he also assured, is stabilizing and the first indicators of economic growth are beginning to appear, fueled mainly by substantial investments and financing from Saudi Arabia and Qatar, as well as by the growing participation of foreign private companies in the construction and energy sectors, assured the interim leader. “People were getting an hour and a half of electricity a day, and now we have reached between 12 and 14 hours a day and we hope that this year we will be self-sufficient in terms of electricity.”