‘Quatrou’, passed.
Nice title for a column, and it was what I would have liked to have published. Because everything indicates that in the North American World Cup (USA, Canada and Mexico are the hosts), from June 2026, four will be the magic number of points, which solves, which classifies.
I will explain, after going over how the World Cup works, why the “quadrou” was not completely taken over.
With 48 participating teams (no longer 32), divided into 12 groups (no longer 8), the bloated World Cup increased the number of places for the knockout stages (elimination games), which gained an extra round before the round of 16.
Until Qatar-2022, 16 qualified, the two best in each group, half of the total. Now, 32 advance, two thirds.
It became a bit of a breeze, with it being unthinkable that any favorite country, according to tradition (Argentina, Spain, Germany, Brazil, France, England, Uruguay, the Netherlands), would return home early.
The ease is such that, in a previous text, after the draw held in Washington, which placed Morocco, Scotland and Haiti ahead of Brazil in Group C, I kind of guessed that, with 3 points (one win, or three draws), you will advance to the stage.
Then that saying appeared, “those who are in a hurry eat raw”. It had been instinctive and, as a mathematician that I am not, I thought: “Is this really it?”
Then I remembered that, last month, the under-17 World Cup, played in Qatar, with the kids from Brazil (I liked center forward Wenderson Wanderley, Dell, a very good player) finishing in fourth place, also had 48 teams.
A check of the classification of the third-placed teams (8 out of 12 passed, as 8 out of 12 will pass in the 2026 World Cup) brought this conclusion: with 3 points, the chance of going to the knockout stages is enormous, but it is not certain; with 4 points, the guarantee would come.
Of the 12 third-placed under-17 teams, four accumulated 4 points: North Korea, Egypt, Paraguay and Uganda. Place guaranteed for them. Still in this dozen, Qatar (2 points) and Costa Rica (1) rotated.
Six scored 3 points, with one victory and two defeats. Four passed (Morocco, Mexico, Czech Republic and Tunisia), two did not (Saudi Arabia and Indonesia), due to tiebreaker criteria. The Indonesians’ goal difference was -5, and that makes it really unfeasible.
Thus, having an empirical basis, winning 3 points may be useful, but what is really useful is winning 4.
But, and there is always a but, there was a very balanced group, in which the four countries had 4 points (Canada, Chile, France and Uganda). All with a win, a draw and a defeat. Very difficult to happen, but a possible combination.
One of them did not pass, even with 4 points accumulated. It was Chile, the one with the worst goal difference, -1.
It is concluded that in this format 3 points is good, 4 points is great, but, in order to not have any chance of elimination in the group stage, just “five”: one victory and two draws. Five points. There’s no mistake there.
It is worth remembering that in the 2022 World Cup, the 4, almost infallible for 2026, served some, not all.
With 4 points, Spain, Poland and South Korea headed to the round of 16.
With the same score, they succumbed in the group stage, finishing in third place (a position that was not used to qualify), two world champions, Germany and Uruguay, plus Belgium, Ecuador, Mexico, Cameroon and Tunisia.
And 3 points, interesting now, were of no use to absolutely anyone.
