Members of the center threaten, behind the scenes, to leave the senator (-RJ) isolated both in his effort for amnesty and in his possible attempt to become president of the Republic.
He displeased the group’s politicians by stating that his withdrawal would only occur with the freedom of his father, the former president (PL).
The predominant analysis, exposed to Sheet by several congressmen and party leaders, is that there is no climate for amnesty in Congress. In the view of these politicians, it can mobilize the Bolsonarist base, but it does not have the strength to change this scenario and may even get in the way.
The son of Jair Bolsonaro (PL) launched himself as a pre-candidate for president on Friday (5), against the wishes of the central parties, which are (Republicans).
On Sunday (7), Flávio stated that he would withdraw his name. A day later, he said in an interview with Sheet that, with one caveat: “The only possibility for Flávio Bolsonaro not to be a candidate for president of the Republic is for the candidate to be Jair Messias Bolsonaro”, he said.
Bolsonaro can only be a candidate if both his and yours are annulled.
In the view of members of the center, Flávio’s candidacy will be eliminated over the next few weeks or months, with the publication of .
Therefore, they believe that no gesture would be necessary now to approve the amnesty in exchange for removing him from the candidacy.
Datafolha research released on Saturday (6) shows that Tarcísio is 5th in the 2nd round.
On the other hand, leaders from the center consider Bolsonaroism to be unpredictable and often make this reservation when analyzing the movements of the Bolsonaro family and their allies.
If Bolsonaro’s son carries his candidacy to the end, the possibility of parties like , and Republicans supporting the same candidate as a bloc will be reduced.
PP politicians, for example, told Sheet that, if the senator is a candidate, the party must release its members to support whoever they want in their states.
The reason would be the lower chances of him defeating Lula in the second round and his rejection, which could contaminate the candidacies for deputy and senator, the party’s current focus.
The analysis of parties in the center is that Flávio starts from a high base of votes, because of the Bolsonarist electorate, but has difficulty bringing together moderate sectors of society because he carries the rejection of his father.
Tarcísio, on the other hand, is seen as the right-wing politician most likely to win the presidential race. Therefore, the chance of this group of parties remaining cohesive around him is greater.
Amnesty
The amnesty for the former president and those arrested for participating in the attacks on the headquarters of Power on January 8, 2023 was one of the months ago. Afterwards, a reduction in sentences, without complete pardon, began to be debated instead. But even that idea.
The project’s rapporteur, deputy (Solidariedade-SP), said that Flávio’s pressure, seen by some politicians as blackmail, does not change anything in the proposal.
“The PL people started talking about this amnesty thing again,” he said. “In my report there is no amnesty. Zero amnesty. What there is is a reduction in sentences”, declared the deputy.
The parliamentarian and the president of the Chamber, (-PB), have been negotiating the vote on the project for weeks, under the condition that the Bolsonarists commit not to try to convert the reduction of sentences into amnesty during the deliberation. In the absence of an agreement, the project remains on hold.
Faced with this impasse, one of the deputies heard assesses that the senator’s movement does not facilitate voting, as it gives strength to Bolsonarists who only accept a project with complete pardon.
Pre-candidate for the government of Paraíba with the support of the Bolsonaro family, senator Efraim Filho (União Brasil) states that the launch of Flávio’s candidacy rekindles the debate on amnesty, but that the presidents of the Chamber and of the Chamber have not shown signs that they are willing to discuss the issue.
“It has significant support, it’s not possible to assess yet whether it has a majority”, he admits.
Tarcísio’s allies rule out the possibility of him working for the former president’s amnesty. Remember that the governor was unsuccessful months ago, at a much more favorable time. They doubt it will be successful now, much less under blackmail.
