The former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro (PL) and the governor Ibaneis Rocha (MDB) lead the scenarios for a possible dispute over Senate for the Federal Districtaccording to research by the Real Time Big Data institute released this Tuesday (9).
In 2026, the House renews 2/3 of its seats, electing two senators per state.
In the first scenario tested, Michelle leads with 28% against 21% for Ibaneis. The senator Leila do Vôlei (PDT) has 16%followed by federal deputy Erica Kokay (PT), with 14%. The retired judge Sebastião Coelho (Novo) adds 6%.
In a second panorama, without the former first lady, the governor of DF leads with 24%. Then, Leila do Vôlei and the deputy Bia Kicis (PL) reach 18%. Kokay accounts for 15% and Sebastião Coelho, 8%.
In the last panorama, Michelle has 23%, against 19% for Ibaneis. Leila do Vôlei adds 15%. Kokay and the president of Iphan (Institute of National Historical and Artistic Heritage), Leandro Grass (PT) reach 10%.
The senator Izalci Lucas (PL) and the former federal deputy Paulo Octávio (PSD) both get 5%. Sebastião Coelho has 4%.
between the 6th and 8th of December; the margin of error is three percentage points, plus or minus.
*Under the supervision of Douglas Porto
