The Trump administration is analyzing possible scenarios for the “day after” if Nicolás Maduro is removed from power, according to a report by Washington Post. Five months after the start of US military reinforcements in the Caribbean, the Venezuelan leader remains in power, but feels greater pressure and restricts public appearances.
O Post reports that internal documents from the Trump administration indicate concern about the reaction of the Venezuelan Armed Forces in the event of a possible collapse of the regime. These papers, obtained by the newspaper, include opposition plans for a transitional government and assessments of the degree of loyalty of military officers.
The Venezuelan president has reinforced his security, limited travel and canceled commitments, according to people close to the government cited by the Post. They claim that Maduro fears a US attack on strategic installations or against his own integrity, but believes that his inner circle remains cohesive.
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The Venezuelan opposition is discussing plans for the first hours and first 100 days after Maduro’s eventual departure, with elections scheduled within a year. These documents, according to the newspaper, include an analysis of the military body that classifies only 20% of the officers as “irrecoverable”.
Despite this, interlocutors cited by the Post claim that it is still unclear what type of agreement could convince Maduro to leave power. He and his allies believe that remaining in the country is less risky than seeking exile. The newspaper recalls that the trajectory of Latin American leaders who left their countries under pressure often involves security risks.
The report also points out that Cuba and Russia have increased their support for Maduro. Analysts interviewed by the Post estimate that these allies could make any negotiations difficult, as Havana depends on Venezuelan oil and would have a lot to lose with a possible change of government.
Trump and Maduro had a phone conversation last month, and three people with contact with the Venezuelan government told the Post that the dialogue was cordial and that Trump expressed a desire to see Maduro leave office, but without ultimatums. Both would have agreed to keep channels open.
Meanwhile, intermediaries try to encourage some form of negotiation. One of them was businessman Joesley Batista, who met with Maduro in Caracas on November 23 to explore possibilities for dialogue with Washington, according to information from the Financial Times.
