After a barrage of positive agendas for the government, the right takes refuge in the Legislature and is welcomed with open arms by the Centrão
The end of the last year before the 2026 presidential elections was very favorable to President Lula (PT), candidate for re-election and leader in the polls: controlled inflation, record employability, approval of the Income Tax exemption for those earning up to R$5,000 and a drop in US tariffs for a series of Brazilian products, with praise from US President Donald Trump and the PT member, formed a strong positive agenda, reinforced by the arrest of former President Jair Bolsonaro. (PL), main opposition leader.
In the midst of a perfect storm, however, the government made a mistake: it aroused the ire of the president of the Senate, Davi Alcolumbre (União-AP), by appointing the current attorney general of the Union, Jorge Messias, to a vacancy on the Federal Supreme Court (STF). In addition to passing over Rodrigo Pacheco (PSD-MG), favorite of Alcolumbre and Centrão, Lula plotted to delay his nominee’s hearing and gain time to negotiate with senators, further irritating the president of Congress. The government’s relationship was no longer good with Hugo Motta (Republicanos-PB), president of the Chamber.
And it was precisely in Congress where the right, still bewildered by Bolsonaro’s arrest, managed to show a sign of life at the end of 2025, being welcomed with open arms by Centrão.
A few days after the former president was detained, a clumsy former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro burned bridges with Centrão by sinking the PL’s support for Ciro Gomes (PSDB) in Ceará.
After exchanging barbs with the stepchildren, however, the family came together (at least publicly) and managed to show strength. The announcement of Flavio Bolsonaro’s (PL-RJ) pre-candidacy took many leaders by direct surprise and displeased Centrão chiefs, who prefer the governor of São Paulo, Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans). Bolsonaro’s firstborn, however, managed to transform private criticism into public praise, even being praised by Tarcísio.
About 24 hours after the announcement, the senator said he could review the candidacy and that it had “a price”, citing an amnesty for his father. Again, the movement was criticized internally, considered hasty and poorly conducted. Publicly, however, the right remained complimentary and supported the pre-candidacy.
The plan, despite being caricatured and lacking in management, quickly bore fruit: just five days after the announcement of Flávio’s pre-candidacy, and one day after a meeting with Centrão leaders, the right-wing group discussed and approved the Dosimetria PL, which had been on hold for almost two years, in the Chamber of Deputies. The Senate is expected to vote on the matter next week. Center deputies voted massively in favor and were vocal in defending the matter. Behind the scenes, Centrão is betting on “pacification” to calm Bolsonarism and make Tarcísio’s candidacy viable with support from the right.
Even though Bolsonarists insist on a general and unrestricted amnesty, the vote represents an advance in the alliance between the right and Centrão in Congress, in addition to a deepening of the crisis between the Legislature and the other powers.
In defiance of the Supreme Court, the Senate also voted yesterday on the Temporal Framework, which will be debated today by STF ministers. The Upper House also debates the Impeachment Law, following the controversial decision by Minister Gilmar Mendes to give only the PGR the prerogative to request impeachment of the Court’s ministers.
The congressmen’s movement raises an alarm in the government, which had been managing to advance the economic agenda in the Legislature. Later this year, the Executive needs to approve the Annual Budget Law. The Minister of Finance, Fernando Haddad, intends to approve the administrative reform before the elections.
Less than a year after the elections, Lula remains the favorite for Planalto, according to polls and analysts. Still without defined candidate(s) for the Federal Executive, the right is forming alliances with the Centrão and should be competitive. In the Legislature, the tendency is for the conservative camp to maintain its broad advantage in the Chamber and extend its dominance to the Senate.
