Dosimetry PL can advance the coup plot semi-openly – 12/10/2025 – Power

Approved in the early hours of this Wednesday (10), it could change the sentences of the former president () and others convicted by the (Supreme Federal Court) in the trial of the coup plot, in addition to bringing forward the progression to the semi-open regime.

The proposal would bring reductions in both total sentences and the minimum time in a closed regime. Punishments would fall from a range of 16 to 27 years to a range of 7 to 22 years. The biggest decrease would be concentrated on former president Bolsonaro: 5 years and 2 months.

The biggest impact, however, would be proportionally to the time in closed regime. Today, in one of the most optimistic scenarios, times vary from 4 to almost 6 years. All periods would be cut to a range of just over 1 year to about 3 years.

This is due to the fact that the bill vetoes, for example, the crimes of coup d’état and violent abolition of the democratic rule of law when these crimes are inserted in the same context. As an alternative, it establishes the application of the most serious penalty (or, if they are equal, only one). In this case, the punishment is increased by one-sixth to one-half.

The text also provides for a sentence reduction of one to two thirds for crimes of attempted coup or abolition committed in . The article excludes from this hypothesis, however, the person who financed the venture or played a leadership role.

for regime progression, experts understand that those convicted in the coup plot trial must serve 16% to 25% of the sentence under current rules, due to the fact that some of the crimes involve violence or serious threats as a prerequisite.

Currently, first-time offenders convicted of crimes committed without violence to the person or serious threat must serve at least 16% of the sentence to progress to the regime. In case of recurrence, 20%. If the crime is committed with violence or serious threat, the percentage rises to 25%.

The text approved in the Chamber, which still needs to be passed by the Senate, resumes as the general rule for regime progression, which existed before the establishment of the percentages, the fulfillment of one-sixth of the sentence, maintaining the escalation scheme for more serious cases. The 25% hypothesis would be limited to crimes against life and property, which is not the case with crimes against democracy.

The calculation of Sheet considers the most optimistic scenario for those convicted, that is, dividing the account of regime progression through the current system using 25% for crimes involving violence or serious threats and 16% for the remainder, excluding qualified damage — which does not provide for a prison sentence. In the new penalty, a minimum increase of one-sixth and a maximum reduction of two-thirds were considered.

Ultimately, these criteria could immediately benefit the federal deputy (PL-RJ), considered a fugitive by the STF. His sentence could be reduced to less than 8 years and already allowed by law to be served in a semi-open regime.

The extent of the impacts would also depend on , at least in the processes within the court’s jurisdiction.

to 27 years and three months in prison for five crimes, as leader of the coup plot. Another seven defendants were sentenced to sentences ranging from 2 to 26 years in prison.

Regime progression still depends on factors such as good behavior and redemption —reduction of the sentence through work or study—, which can anticipate the transition to a milder regime.

source

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