One of the most exposed states on NATO’s eastern flank, Lithuaniahas been forced to activate a national emergency after detecting a wave of balloons from Belarus who transported contraband tobacco. The Vilnius authorities suspect that this strange infiltration method is not only for economic purposes, but is part of a
The announcement was made by the Minister of the Interior, Vladislav Kondratovič, after an extraordinary meeting of the Government. As he explained, the phenomenon is no longer a mere setback for civil aviation and it has become a security issue. “It is evident that the emergency is not only due to the interruptions generated by these balloons, but also to the need to strengthen institutional coordination against potential hybrid threats”, he stated, according to Lithuanian public radio and television.
The Executive considers that the constant arrival of these balloons – simple, cheap and difficult to intercept – It poses a risk to both aircraft and infrastructure and natural environments. Furthermore, Vilnius interprets these incursions as a deliberate maneuver to overwhelm its surveillance capabilities and provoke political tension.
Belarus, Moscow’s crutch
In recent weeks, the unusual transit of these artifacts has forced the country’s main airport to close on several occasions. The repetition of the incident has fueled the , is experimenting with new low-cost coercion tactics to test NATO’s reaction. Although Alexander Lukashenko’s regime is not directly involved in the war in Ukraine, its territory has served since 2022 as a platform for Russian military operations.
The state of emergency will now allow the Armed Forces to be involved in the response, streamline communication between organizations and enable additional resources for airspace control. According to the Ministry of the Interior, the measure will be reviewed within a month, although extending it is not ruled out if the situation worsens.
Meanwhile, Minsk has tried to downplay the issue. Lukashenko accused Lithuania of “politicizing an insignificant issue” and assured that the balloons do not pose any danger to the pilots. The Belarusian opposition, however, he aligned himself with the Lithuanian concern. Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, exiled after the controversial 2020 elections, called the move a new provocation by the regime and warned that the regional threat will continue as long as Belarus remains under authoritarian rule.
The tension on this border is not new. Lithuania shares borders with both Belarus and Kaliningrad, the extremely militarized Russian enclave that many analysts consider the most sensitive point if a direct conflict were to break out between Moscow and the Atlantic Alliance. Part of the constant pressure that the Baltic country feels comes from there, which has historically positioned itself as one of Ukraine’s greatest defenders within the EU.
Brussels, for its part, has already shown concern. The president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen recently warned that the border with Belarus is undergoing accelerated deterioration and announced that the EU is preparing new sanctions against Minsk. He described the appearance of the balloons as “an unacceptable hybrid attack” and reiterated full support for Lithuania.
Experts from the Institute for the Study of War They have also linked the episode to “phase zero” of the Russian strategywhose objective would be to cause constant friction in border countries using cheap and difficult to attribute tools. This series of small disturbances, they maintain, seeks to erode regional stability and force NATO to maintain a high level of alert.
Lukashenko calls accusations “exaggeration”
Lithuanian Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė was blunt: “We must respond firmly to these actions and protect the areas who are suffering the most from the impact of the hybrid attack.” Tsikhanouskaya insisted on a similar message, noting that the smuggling balloons are just the latest example of how Minsk is trying to create chaos beyond its borders.
Lukashenko, on the other hand, remains defiant. He assures that the warnings about the danger of balloons are exaggerated and states that even if any of them reached Lithuanian airspace, it would not compromise the safety of the pilots. A position that, far from reassuring, has been interpreted in Vilnius as further confirmation that Belarus has no intention of stopping these incursions.
