The proposal to join in 2027 was met with deep skepticism in , with Europeans urging not to rush a complicated process with huge consequences in many areas, from the rule of law to agriculture.
“In 2027? That’s the day after tomorrow!’ was the first reaction of a European Commission official.
That timeline is laid out in the US peace plan to end the war between Ukraine and Russia, according to senior officials. But it is considered unrealistic by many European officials: the most optimistic of them until now estimated that accession could take place in 2030.
Orban’s veto
“It is certain that the Americans will decide for us…” quipped a European diplomat referring to Ukraine’s accession in January 2027. “They say whatever: you need to have an appetite for enlargement, which is not here,” he added.
The accession process, which started immediately after the Russian invasion, has been at a standstill for months. The reason? The long and complicated process requires the unanimity of the 27 member countries at every stage. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán decided to freeze it de facto, using the right of veto. The conservative populist leader, who has close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, says Ukraine’s EU membership would “destroy” the union.
Without the “green light” of Budapest, no progress is possible.
“There are no borders in Ukraine”
A potential lightning process for Ukraine’s accession (negotiations officially started in June 2024), poses very specific and highly complex questions. How will an agricultural giant like Ukraine be integrated without completely destabilizing the single European market? At a time when French, German and Polish farmers, grain growers, often accuse Kiev of unfair competition, due to the prices at which it promotes its products.
How will it be ensured that Ukraine, now in a state of war, will succeed in reforming its institutions to comply with strict European criteria for the rule of law?
“How could Ukraine prepare? It doesn’t even have borders,” commented a European diplomat, referring to the Ukrainian territories, which Moscow has announced its annexation.
“I think those who mentioned this date did not ask a thousandth of these questions,” Lukas Macek, an expert on EU enlargement at the Jacques Delors Institute, told AFP. In this context, Ukraine’s accession in January 2027 is “completely unrealistic”. It would have to “reverse the logic completely” and reshape the entire process, with integration preceding all other stages.
However, the question arises whether this “new method” will also apply to the countries of the Balkans (Albania, Bosnia-Herzegovina, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Kosovo) who have been waiting for years, with no prospect of their immediate accession.
The record for fastest EU membership belongs to Finland: it took less than 3 years after submitting its official application. Turkey, on the other hand, has been an official candidate for about 30 years, but the process has completely frozen.
