A key factor for this year’s holidays will be the behavior of the polar vortex in the stratosphere, informs the website. Models suggest that it could split in the coming weeks. One of its cores is expected to move over North America, where it will create a large area of low pressure. Such developments typically cause significant cooling and incursions of arctic air deep into the US and Canada. At the same time, it can lead to the fact that Europe will remain under the influence of a milder ocean current.
Current models for central Europe predict rather mild weather around Christmas, although with occasional cold swings. This is also confirmed by the 42-day trend of the wetter.de server. Although the long-term model of the European Meteorological Center indicates cooling, but only after the holidays. The American NOAA, on the other hand, predicts higher temperatures on average – but these data significantly affect the next two weeks, which does not exclude subsequent cooling, the portal reports.
When looking at January, experts talk mainly about changeable, rather mild weather with a minimum of winter manifestations and a lot of cloud cover. The NOAA models also sound similar, although their calculations have changed frequently recently. They are interesting European EFFIS system forecasts showing a colder and drier January than the long-term average. Such conditions indicate a stable high pressure over central Europe – and it can be treacherous: it looks pleasant during the day, but fogs and night cooling quickly lead to permanent frost.
For Europe, the models so far indicate that during the Christmas holidays there will be a slight cooling in the western regions, but without a significant influx of arctic air. Snow may appear especially in the north of the continent and in mountainous areas, in Central Europe so far there are only rare signs of possible snowfall in lower elevations.
