A Genial/Quaest survey with federal deputies was released last week. The research questions legislators on different topics, and one constant is how left-wing deputies (Lulistas or not) and right-wing deputies (Bolsonarists or not) differ on practically all topics: from the evaluation of the 6×1 scale, from the taxation of fintechs to the indication of favoritism in the 2026 election and the response to Trump’s tariffs.
Some points stand out in the research, whether due to the rare convergences between left and right, or due to the change of direction among centrist deputies.
One of the most interesting data from the research appears precisely among the deputies who declare themselves independent from the government. When asked who is the favorite for the 2026 election, there is a precipitous drop in those betting on the opposition. In June of this year, 62% said that the opposition candidate was the favorite; now it is only 30%. Among deputies who identify as centrist, the drop is less pronounced, but the pattern is the same: only 33% support the opposition, compared to 51% in June.
The lack of confidence among centrist deputies in the victory of a candidate opposing the Lula government will make it difficult to form alliances for the 2026 elections. If the thermometer in Congress indicates greater chances for Lula, these parties will have incentives to remain neutral in the presidential dispute, avoiding tearing down bridges that would facilitate accession to the government in 2027.
For Lula, if re-elected, it means maintaining the current balance. For the opposition, it means greater difficulty during the campaign and greater pressure to present candidates from the PL and the Bolsonarist base in the states as well. Electoral costs and rivalries with the center increase.
In the field of convergence, more than 90% of deputies state that “Thinking about reaching the fiscal target, the government should reduce spending on super salaries in the public sector.” If there is agreement, why is legislation not approved in this area? As already pointed out by several studies, super salaries in the Brazilian public service are concentrated in the Judiciary and in Executive careers that link their salaries to the Judiciary. Corporatism is not an exclusive attribute of Congress, it is equally or even more present in the STF and the Judiciary as a whole. The difference is that judges are shielded from social pressures.
Another point of convergence appears in the same battery of questions. Around 90% of parliamentarians stated that: “Thinking about reaching the fiscal target, the government should increase taxation on betting companies.” Proposal on the topic was approved at the beginning of December and needs to be considered by the Chamber. It remains to be seen whether the preferences declared in the survey will translate into votes or whether the interests of a small group of deputies with strong ties to betting entrepreneurs will prevail.
There is also agreement between left and right, government and opposition, regarding proposals for tougher penalties in the area of public security.
The agreements end there. The contrast between specific consensuses and electoral expectations helps to understand why political coordination in Congress remains a challenge.
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