The Brazilian government fears a retreat by the European Union (EU) in the final stretch towards signing the trade agreement with Mercosur, negotiated 25 years ago, according to BBC News Brasil reports from sources close to the negotiations.
Next week will be decisive. The text needs to be approved in two votes in Europe: one in the European Parliament and another in the European Council, scheduled between Tuesday (16) and Thursday (18).
Two sources with direct knowledge of the negotiations warned the BBC that, without a signature now, the negotiations could end for good. The chances of reopening are almost zero, said one of them, predicting that Brazil, the largest economy in the South American bloc, will turn its eyes to Asia.
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What is the agreement and why does it matter so much?
Started in 1999, the pact creates a free trade area between Mercosur (Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Uruguay and Bolivia) and the EU, with reciprocal reductions in tariffs on imports and exports. If it comes into force, it will form one of the largest global trade zones: 718 million inhabitants and a combined GDP of US$22 trillion.
In 2024, the negotiation phase ended, but there remain steps such as the signing — which depends on European approval. In the European Parliament, approval is simple — absolute majority: half plus one of the MEPs.
The biggest obstacle is the European Council, which requires a qualified majority: support from 15 of the 27 countries, representing 65% of the bloc’s population (around 451 million inhabitants).
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Resistance in Europe and the role of Italy
There is consensus in Mercosur for the signature, but in the EU there is opposition. Countries such as Germany, Spain, Portugal and the Czech Republic support the text. France and Poland are leading the resistance, fearing competition from South American agricultural products for their farmers. Belgium and Austria also signal opposition.
To get around this, European negotiators approved agricultural safeguards at the EU’s International Trade Committee earlier this week. They allow tariff benefits to be suspended if Mercosur exports increase by 5% compared to the previous year. These measures are still going to be voted on in the European Parliament.
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European diplomats consulted by the BBC point to Italy — with 59 million inhabitants, the third largest population in the bloc — as “the balance”. Calculations by Brazilian and European diplomacy indicate that an Italian rejection, combined with France and Poland, would reach 36% of the EU population, making the quorum unfeasible.
On December 8, an Italian diplomat said at a meeting in Brasília that he supported the agreement, but the mood remains cautious.
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Two weights and two measures: the view from the Planalto
A Presidency assistant, speaking to BBC News Brasil, classified a possible European retreat as a sign of “fragility” of the EU leadership. He argues that the pact would strengthen the blocs amid attacks on multilateralism, such as those from Donald Trump.
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The Brazilian government criticizes the EU for accepting an “asymmetric” agreement with the USA — signed in August, with a reduction in European tariffs and purchases of American oil, gas and defense —, while hesitating about a balanced treaty with Mercosur.
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Government data show the Asian shift already underway: in 2025, China purchased US$94 billion in Brazilian products, more than double the EU’s US$45 billion. If the agreement fails, Brazil would intensify partnerships in the region, conclude the sources heard by the BBC.
