The North American currency closed the session at R$5.423; Ibovespa, the main index of the Brazilian Stock Exchange, rose to 162,536.94 points at 5:09 pm
The Brazilian financial market registered an increase in the stock exchange and appreciation of the dollar against the real this Monday (Dec 15, 2025), in a trading session marked by weak domestic economic data, expectations about the United States’ monetary policy and an external scenario relatively favorable to risk.
Ibovespa, B3’s main index, advanced 1.10%, to 162,536.94 points at 5:09 pm, supported mainly by high-weight shares and the reading that the economic slowdown could open space for interest cuts in the medium term. Throughout the day, the index surpassed 162.7 thousand points.
The spot dollar closed up 0.23%, quoted at R$5.423, after oscillating between a minimum of R$5.381 and a maximum of R$5.425. The US currency reflected both external factors – such as caution regarding global growth and the decisions of the Federal Reserve (US central bank) – and the reading of weaker internal indicators.
Data on the radar
Among the highlights of the day was the IBC-Br, considered a preview of the GDP (Gross Domestic Product), which showed a decline of 0.2% in October, both in the monthly and quarterly comparison. The data reinforced the perception of a loss of momentum in economic activity at the beginning of the fourth quarter.
On the other hand, the Focus Bulletin brought a slight relief to inflation expectations, with the IPCA (Broad Consumer Price Index) projection for 2025 falling to 4.36%, which helped to sustain the appetite for shares, especially in the most interest-sensitive sectors.
International scenario
Abroad, the environment was mostly positive for stock markets. Investors followed statements from Fed officials.
Director Stephen Miran stated that maintaining monetary policy “unnecessarily restrictive” could cost jobs, arguing for a faster pace of rate cuts following the recent rate reduction to the 3.5% to 3.75% range. This reinforced bets on monetary easing in the United States throughout 2026.
Local factors
In corporate news, the national oil workers’ strike, which began at midnight, did not have any relevant impacts on the market. Petrobras reported that it adopted contingency plans and ensured that there would be no damage to production or supply. The state-owned company’s shares had a stable performance, while shares such as Braskem stood out among the biggest risers of the day.
Despite the simultaneous appreciation of the dollar and the Stock Exchange, analysts assess that different forces acted on each market: the currency reacted to external factors and caution regarding growth, while the Ibovespa benefited from expectations of lower interest rates in the future and the positive performance of important shares in the index.
