With two weeks left to close the year, Lula receives a gift from the and will arrive strengthened for the start of the electoral contest in 2026. In the more than 100 thousand public groups monitored in real time by , geopolitical issues dominated discussions throughout the last week, resulting in a positive balance for the president.
The Magnitsky Act was the central axis of the debates. While the sanction against him and his wife was treated as an asset for the right, the conversation followed a consistent and dominant narrative line: Washington as leverage, the target and the right as beneficiary.
But, the interpretation changed. Among the messages that took a position on what it “meant” from then on, 50% migrated to explicit skepticism, with arguments in favor of national sovereignty and the idea that there is no “foreign shortcut” to resolve Brazil.
This rupture also appears in the way it was reevaluated. The removal of the sanction triggered a negative emotional trigger for the right, which is the feeling of retreat. Among the messages that evaluated the decision, 66% criticized Trump, framing weakness, unpredictability or withdrawal, and 34% defended the measure as part of a legitimate calculation of American interests. Frustration led a portion of the right to compare Trump with , reinforcing the lack of courage.
At the same time, it was read with less romanticism. When both appear together in conversations, the dispute is between two narratives: pragmatic negotiation and economic conflict. Among those who chose one of these paths, 59% saw the relationship through the lens of pressure and friction, such as tariffs, blackmail and costs for Brazil, while 41% highlighted approach and direct negotiation, with signs of recalibration and conversations “over the top” of intermediaries.
The most visible domestic effect of this turn was the split within the right. , which had been raising hopes of foreign interference, began to be criticized, causing internal divisions. Before Magnitsky’s fall, considering last week’s messages, among the Bolsonarists who gave their opinion on Eduardo/Paulo, 52% were supportive and 48% critical. After the removal of sanctions, criticism reached almost 60%. It is in this field that irony gains traction.
Among the messages that assessed the impact of the turnaround on the president, 95% stated that Lula was strengthened and 5% suggested a weakening. The argument is that Eduardo’s external offensive only served to produce political gains for Lula, whether as a beneficiary of the sovereignty discourse, or the resumption of the direct channel with Trump.
In addition to the external agenda, the approval, by the Chamber of Deputies, of the . In messages over the last 7 days, among those who took sides, 77% were against amnesty and 23% in favor, signaling that the left has achieved more cohesion. It is important to highlight that a portion of the right was also against the measure, as they saw it as insufficient, pointing out that it would have been the .
In this context, he reaches the election year with an advantage over his opponents. The Magnitsky Act, which had served as hope and promise of a turnaround, brought the burden of the conflict onto the right and only served to expose who lost, who won and who needs to quickly reconstruct a narrative in the face of the new scenario.
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