In the last two decades, the Supreme Court has undergone crucial transformations: it went from fighting to defending democracy; managed to form a tacit alliance with the legislative power against the executive power, and then align itself with the latter; has gradually assumed a political rather than a judicial profile, which was contributed to by the personalistic pattern of appointments under the PT and Bolsonaro governments.
The country’s leading role in combating corruption was consolidated through and reflects its criminal jurisdiction. The unprecedented media coverage and the visibility achieved by the rapporteur, Minister Joaquim Barbosa, gave the trial an exceptional character. Its impact, however, was enhanced by three factors. First, it involved the government in its first term, reversing the PT’s role from accuser to accused. From ‘UDN in overalls’ (Brizola), .
Second, the Court was then mostly composed of ministers appointed by the PT itself, which reinforced its technical profile and legitimacy of the convictions. The rapporteur of the process was also appointed by the party. 25 of the 37 accused were convicted, and two former presidents of the party lost their mandates. Corruption became the main concern of Brazilians, fueling the mobilizations of 2013. Lava Jato and Petrolão represented the culmination of this cycle, contributing to a “perfect storm” that led to the impeachment and arrest of presidents.
The STF actively supported this anti-corruption agenda until the Bolsonaro government, when it chose the battle it began to fight: from the fight against corruption to the defense of democracy. Under attack from Bolsonarism, the court faced an existential threat. And he responded hyperbolically. This metamorphosis.
In this movement, what I called Lula’s “” constituted the first step. The second was the brutal dismantling of Lava Jato and the mass annulment of plea bargains. A tacit alliance was then forged between the STF and majority sectors of Congress, aimed at containing Bolsonarism and holding those involved in the plot for a coup accountable. Under Lula 3, this convergence was replaced by a new alignment between the Executive and the STF.
The current situation, however, strains this balance on at least three fronts. First, the threat posed by Bolsonaro cooled with the trial that culminated in his arrest; Added to this is the retreat of North American sanctions and the loss of centrality of Bolsonarism as an immediate risk. Second, the electoral scenario exacerbates the polarization between a hyper-minority Executive and an increasingly assertive Centrão, with budget disputes that reflect broader conflicts between the Powers.
Third, large-scale scandals — INSS and — severely affect the reputation of the Court and the government. As Malu Gaspar pointed out, the argument that “investigating Banco Master makes fascism return” has completely lost its persuasive force. There is a double novelty here: accusations affecting the Supreme Court itself and a reversal of the technical standard of Mensalão. The INSS involves, through family ties, the President himself.
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