By taking for himself the position of legitimate heir to Bolsonarism, the senator (PL-RJ) indicated, treating his candidacy as irreversible, that the next electoral race could repeat his family’s antagonism with the president (). Zero Um’s son ended up reviving an old desire of some segments of the population: the third way.
The desire, previously undeniable, becomes reality through a series of initiatives. To begin with, there is the governor of , (Republicanos-SP), the center’s favorite. In parallel, the federal deputy, recently sworn in as president of the , states that he will organize a movement under a center-right name. There is also the party, Missão, in addition to the possibility of an outsider emerging. Political scientists say, however, that the third way is unlikely to prevail, whether with a name from institutional politics or someone outside it.
“We cannot let Brazil be held hostage by Bolsonarism and Lulism. This is the time to call out parties that do not conform to such shallow choices”, says Aécio, rejecting being a candidate for president again, after 2014. “The PSDB is today a programmatic island in an ocean of pragmatic parties. Congress is becoming an unhealthy space.”
It turns out that, in recent years, . Aécio minimizes the collapse of the party and the ill-fated merger with Podemos, which was paralyzed due to disagreements over who would preside over it. “We underwent liposuction and we’re coming back slimmer,” he says, referring to the party’s shrinking size.
In 2022, the PSDB elected only 13 deputies, three senators, three governors and 270 mayors. The movement led by Aécio joins other initiatives, the main one formed by right-wing governors, trying to free themselves from Bolsonarism.
Tarcísio is seen as the group’s favorite — he himself admitted the possibility of there being more than one right-wing candidate. At the same time, the leader of the PP in the Chamber, deputy Doctor Luizinho (RJ) to build a non-Bolsonarist candidacy. The scenario becomes even more complex given the launch of Missão, the MBL party, which will form a right-wing opposition to Bolsonarism in 2026.
Founder of MBL, There is also the possibility of the emergence of an outsider, that is, a figure supposedly with no connection to institutional politics.
Last month, a survey carried out by Quaest indicated that 24% of the electorate preferred to vote for a candidate unrelated to Lula or Bolsonaro. The hypothesis of an outsider scares those within the parties. “I think it’s dangerous. I agree that we have to renew the staff, but not deny the policy”, says Aécio.
The view on the topic is not that different on the left. “I think that, since 2018, we have lived in a situation with this recurring phenomenon. With the right divided, I think that an outsider could emerge, the possibility is not ruled out”, says Paula Coradi, president of .
The influencer even defended that an outsider — just as he was, last year, during the São Paulo mayoral elections — emerge to contest the Planalto. Those who study political science say, however, that, despite research showing demand, the chances of a third way are reduced, both for traditional parties and for an outsider.
Professor of political science at UFFRJ (Federal Rural University of Rio de Janeiro), Leonardo Belinelli states that Lula’s positive momentum and Bolsonaro’s influence, even in prison, prevent the strengthening of the third way. According to him, the right will still need to incorporate Bolsonarist ideas to have electoral viability. Belinelli also explains that the outsider emerges when power actors weaken. In 2018, the then president was notably unpopular — and Lula, leader of the left, was imprisoned at the Federal Police headquarters in Curitiba.
This context helped Bolsonaro present himself as an anti-system candidate, even with a long political career. “Being an outsider is more of a rhetorical strategy than an organic phenomenon”, says Belinelli, remembering that this figure was strengthened in the June 2013 Journeys.
Since then, various types of outsiders have appeared, from renewal via MBL to candidates who claim to be technicians, such as the former governor of São Paulo João Doria. Also a professor of political science, Pedro Lima, from UFRJ, states that the fragmentation of the right is a risk of boosting Lula’s re-election in 2026.
With regard to the outsider, he says that this figure reflects anti-political sentiment, because it goes against traditional representatives, although once in power, everyone has to seek alliances. Finally, the researcher observes a pattern followed by everyone who, in recent years, presented themselves as outsiders: none of them were left-wing. “The PT has institutional control of the progressive field”, he states. “We must remember that Bolsonaro always repeated the phrase ‘my party is Brazil.'”
