The end of the war in Ukraine remains as close or as far away as it was a while ago… depending on who tells it. He latest diplomatic push between the US and Ukrainewith Europe as mediator, takes place in Germany. And from there, the German Prime Minister, Friedrich Merz, has already made clear his intention for there to be a ceasefire “before Christmas.” Before, there are many obstacles to overcome and the mystery of the “security guarantees” that Washington has advanced to kyiv…as long as he accepts a territorial loss to Russia.
The US delegation, led by the ‘Trump men’, Steve Witkoff and the yernie, Jared Kushnerthey would have offered kyiv security guarantees “equivalent” to NATO Article 5the same one that activates the members of the alliance to respond if one of its members is attacked. This would mean prevent future Russian attacks on sovereign Ukrainian territory once peace is signed.
According to Reuters, Trump’s intention is to stop any attempt by Putin to expand westwards after keeping part of Ukraine, specifically Donbas and Crimea, a condition today sine qua non for Russia and the US to validate peace.
“We have now heard from the American side that they are willing to provide security guarantees equivalent to Article 5 of the NATO treaty and That’s not bad at all, but for now it’s just a first step.”, Zelensky pointed out in a press conference with Friedrich Merz.
In case anyone is lost at this point, let’s remember what it says:
…an armed attack against one or more of them, which takes place in Europe or North America, will be considered an attack directed against all of them, and consequently, they agree that if such an attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the attacked Party or Parties, subsequently adopting, individually and in agreement with the other Parties, the measures it deems necessary, including the use of force armed…”
The US intention passes, however, because Ukraine does not join NATO, something that both kyiv and the EU already assume…and that links with the desire of Russia, which has been threatening for years with retaliation if NATO takes the step of incorporating the European country.
What is also carried over from the meetings between the American delegates and the Ukrainian side these days in Berlin is that the offer will not last “forever”, forcing kyiv to make a decision based on ‘future protection’ to avoid new Russian attacks in exchange for giving up part of its territory, today controlled militarily by Russia after almost four years of invasion.
The EU, witness to the facts, sees it as something of a lesser evil, in the words of the high representative and head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas. Regarding the difficulties of Ukraine’s future entry into NATO, he is aware that Zelensky “would like to at least leave the door ajar to this possibility, but in the meantime he has accepted that this will not happen.
For this reason, Kallas believes that Zelensky would accept “Article 5-type” guarantees of the NATO Treaty of mutual defense from the US, European partners and other G7 countries.
In that case, if kyiv agrees not to be a NATO country, the EU hopes that “all Member States and all countries, including the Americans, provide security guarantees very solid and tangible, not just on paper, but really tangible, like how many troops there would be on the ground, how many capabilities.”
“Because that is the only thing that really protects them. So I think it has to be accompanied by extremely solid security guarantees. But, in the end, it is up to the Ukrainians to decide what they are willing to give up to achieve peace,” the EU high representative concluded this Monday. also assuming the thesis that there will have to be territorial loss to seal a peace with Russia.
