Between January and November 2025, there was an increase in the volume of mergers and acquisitions transactions of 18% compared to the same period of the previous year — that is, the sum of the values transacted. On the number of trades side, however, the value fell by 25%. The data was collected by M&A boutique Seneca Evercore, at the request of InfoMoney.
“The increase in traded volume is due to some large operations, concentrated mainly in the energy and natural resources sectors, which include, for example, energy generation and distribution companies, oil and gas, paper and cellulose, and mining”, explains the founding partner of Seneca Evercore, Rodrigo Mello.
The purchase of a stake in was the largest transaction of the year, followed by the acquisition of Serena Energia by Actis, in a divestment from Tarpon, for US$2.82 billion. Also in the energy and natural resources sector, the third biggest deal was the purchase of Eldorado Brasil by J&F, after eight years of dispute with Paper Excellence.
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Since 2021, the energy sector has gained space in the M&A market, going from 10% representation in volume in 2020 to 54% in 2025. From January to November this year, the volume transacted in energy and natural resources operations was US$28.2 billion, 47% higher compared to the same period of the previous year.
“One of the factors that explains this movement is the more resilient nature of these sectors, which are less exposed to fluctuations in the domestic market and the country’s political and economic uncertainties”, points out Mello.
It’s a scenario that shouldn’t change much in 2026. For 44 Capital’s managing partner, Guilherme Steagall, a trend in the M&As sector for next year is consolidation in sectors that are currently very regionalized — the case of some energy generation projects.
“There are attempts to consolidate these capacities. Many solar energy projects, for example, are very regionalized, localized. We have seen many funds and other players raising money specifically to buy large capacities, especially when there are associated public-private partnerships”, says Steagall.
For the expert, the largest number of transactions, in 2026, should also be concentrated in sectors such as logistics, technology, education, infrastructure. According to the Seneca study, after energy and natural resources, consumption and retail (14%), industries (9%), transport and logistics (8%) and technology (7%) had the highest representation in business volumes.
Business in 2026
After another year in which the energy and natural resources sector was highlighted among those in Brazil, eyes turn to monetary policy. For analysts consulted by InfoMoneythe behavior of interest rates should impact asset prices and induce sales of shares, while a still high Selic level could make M&As a relevant financing alternative.
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The expectation of cuts in the basic interest rate, currently at 15% per year, is a central element in M&As market projections in 2026. “It could be a better year, with the Selic potentially reaching lower levels, which could boost asset prices and, thus, induce shareholders to once again consider stake sales”, points out Mello, from Seneca Evercore.
Likewise, he assesses, a lower financing cost can help buyers looking for financing for their acquisitions. Today, the market estimates that at the beginning of next year the Central Bank will begin a cycle of interest cuts. In the last Focus Bulletin, market agents reduced the Selic rate projection from 12.25% to 12.13%. The document, published on December 15, brings together market expectations for the economy.
Steagall considers that still high interest rates should make mergers and acquisitions an alternative to company financing. “It is very difficult to remain independent with an interest rate at a level of 15%, difficult to be profitable. The M&A market will be a solution: efficiency gains through the consolidation of activities, especially logistics and production chains. It is a path.”
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The 44 Capital executive projects a different business profile for the next cycle. His assessment is that, in 2026, more transactions will be completed with a “slightly smaller” volume than in 2025. “Medium-sized companies will play an important role. Of course there will be new mergers, but this rationale applies a lot to medium-sized companies”, he points out. Until November, there were 592 transactions until November this year, with a volume of more than US$52 billion.
