The year 2026 tends to be decisive for global trade. Political changes, industrial reconfigurations and the strategic dispute between the United States and China are expected to maintain the international environment marked by technological competition and diplomatic realignments. Brazilian businesspeople monitor the scenario cautiously, but with pragmatism: periods of uncertainty also open up opportunities.
For Brazil, two vectors will be central: the relationship with China – the main trading partner, responsible for 28% of exports and 41.4% of the surplus – and the dialogue with the United States, a decisive power in finance, technology and regional influence. The ability to balance these poles will define gains in investments, exports and innovation.
The expectation is that China will maintain, in 2026, its global expansion strategy focused on logistics, energy, technology and food security. Brazil remains a priority, with growing demand for soy, corn, meat, ore and cellulose, in addition to advances in renewables, solar equipment, infrastructure and electric vehicles. In 2024, the country received US$4.18 billion (R$22 billion) in Chinese investments; between 2007 and 2024, there were 303 projects, totaling US$77.5 billion (R$419 billion). In the same year, the stock of direct investment in Brazil reached US$ 1.141 trillion (R$ 6.15 trillion), with the USA being the largest investor in companies’ share capital (US$ 244.7 billion; R$ 1.32 trillion).
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The trade balance confirms the structural weight of both. In 2024, the Brazilian surplus was US$98.8 billion (R$532.5 billion). China accounted for exports of US$105.9 billion (R$570.8 billion) and a surplus of US$52.8 billion (R$284.6 billion). With the USA, Brazil recorded a deficit of US$8.9 billion (R$48 billion).
Brazilian agribusiness, energy and logistics companies should benefit from the Chinese movement to diversify suppliers and expand factories in Brazil, especially in the Northeast and Southeast. For 2026, a more technical relationship with Beijing is projected, dependent on legal certainty and regulatory predictability.
On the North American side, the reindustrialization process continues, driven by public incentives and technological policies. This creates tensions but also opens up opportunities in clean energy, strategic minerals and advanced manufacturing. At the same time, the US must intensify environmental, traceability and technology standards, requiring adaptation from Brazilian companies.
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The dispute between the USA and China will continue to be the biggest factor of global uncertainty. Washington tries to limit Chinese technological advancement and influence Latin American governments; Beijing expands financing, trade agreements and strategic presence in the region. For Brazil, the challenge is to extract benefits from both sides without automatically aligning themselves.
There is, however, consensus on a window of opportunity: while the powers compete, Brazil is strengthening itself as a reliable supplier of food, clean energy and strategic resources, as well as a destination for industrial investments. The watchword is pragmatism: 2026 will require rapid adjustments, pressure for efficiency and smart economic diplomacy.
To move forward, the country needs to strengthen institutions, expand legal security and facilitate innovation. In a world polarized between Washington and Beijing, Brazilian competitiveness will depend less on choosing a side and more on knowing how to navigate between both. The message is simple: Brazil has a real chance of growing while the giants compete for space, as long as it decides to actively participate in the game.
