WASHINGTON — Tariffs are unpopular, prices remain high and Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with President Donald Trump’s handling of the economy.
Therefore, Trump once again used a well-known political strategy: promising money to the population.
The White House is trying to ease Americans’ economic concerns by hinting at the possibility of checks and other payments next year, hoping the money will help assuage voters who blame the president for the rising cost of living.
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Trump, who is expected to address the nation on Wednesday night, has repeatedly talked about the idea of sending one-time $2,000 refund checks to many families, using funds raised from his global tariffs. But he has not yet presented a detailed plan for these payments, which are expensive and need to be approved by Republicans in Congress — and so far have not been discussed.
The president has also been highlighting the tax refunds Americans are expected to receive in 2026. For many people, those cash amounts are expected to be higher than last year, after Republicans approved a sweeping package of tax cuts in July.
Both Trump and members of his administration have, from time to time, compared supposed tariff refunds to the approved tax law. They claim this money can help the economy and ease the financial burden on families, even as Trump insists that much of the talk about the cost of living being high is a “hoax.”
“Next year should be the biggest tax refund season in history, and we’re going to give some of that tariff money back because we raised trillions of dollars,” Trump said at a Cabinet meeting last week. “And we will give a good return to the people, in addition to reducing the debt.”
But economists are more skeptical. Even if Americans are happy with a series of government checks, those payments are unlikely to solve the reasons why prices remain high — such as the housing shortage, which has increased rents and mortgages, and global tariffs that have made imports more expensive. Furthermore, the money that could begin circulating in the economy could even worsen inflation, undermining Trump’s own economic goals.
Alex Durante, senior economist at the Tax Foundation, said that simply “throwing money” at the economy — without other changes — could “create a cycle where prices just keep rising.”
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The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
The rush to release money is reminiscent of a strategy from Trump’s first term, when he worked with Congress to stabilize the economy at the height of the coronavirus pandemic. During that period, the president approved two rounds of stimulus checks, an expensive measure that was popular politically and helped the economy — even if it later contributed to rapidly rising prices.
But the 2020 pandemic caused the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, a situation far more serious than the stagnation affecting Americans and their finances today. The latest signs of trouble appeared on Tuesday, when the government reported a rise in the unemployment rate.
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Quickly, Trump’s top advisors minimized this negative data and worked to show the economy as strong and growing. They did so as the president prepared for a prime-time speech on Wednesday to promote his agenda and “everything he continues to plan to do for the American people,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Tuesday. Trump is also expected to speak about the economy in North Carolina later this week.
Recently, Trump has been using public appearances to highlight his work putting money in Americans’ pockets.
Last week, in Mount Pocono, Pennsylvania, Trump spoke about the roughly $12 billion in emergency aid his administration has allocated to farmers. He said this aid, to help producers affected by the president’s own trade war, came “directly from tariff money.”
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Trump had previously suggested he would use the same revenue from the tariffs to give “a small refund” to all Americans, a promise he repeated as recently as December amid concerns that U.S. tariffs were driving up consumer prices. At one point, he estimated the amount at “at least $2,000 per person,” excluding those with higher incomes, but the administration did not release further details.
Such refunds can be expensive, eating up much of the roughly $200 billion the government has collected in customs revenue this year, according to recent data from U.S. Customs and Border Protection.
If the administration follows through on Trump’s proposal — $2,000 refunds for those making less than $100,000 a year — it could cost nearly double what was collected in fees this year, according to the Yale Budget Lab.
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The analysis published in November concluded that the refunds would have a “moderate” effect on inflation. But Martha Gimbel, executive director of the Yale Budget Lab, said it’s difficult to make a more accurate estimate given uncertainty about the president’s policies and general public concern about the economy.
“One of the big issues for inflation right now is consumer expectations,” she said, adding that people may be more likely to spend than save if they think prices will rise in the future.
Last month, in an interview with Fox BusinessTreasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave few details about the Trump administration’s plans, saying “everything is up in the air.” He even predicted a “huge increase” in economic activity early next year as Americans begin receiving larger refunds on their federal income tax returns.
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